Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, has fallen to 107.50 so far on Thursday. The knee-jerk reaction comes after stronger-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January was released on Wednesday, which pushed the US Dollar higher. However, the turnaround came in the US trading session when United States (US) President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed over the phone to start peace talks with Ukraine. The economic calendar is focusing on US producer figures on Thursday....
WTI crude oil futures fell by around 1% to $70.5 per barrel on Thursday, nearing a seven-week low, driven by optimism that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, encouraged by President Trump, could lead to the easing of sanctions on Russian oil exports. Trump confirmed that talks would begin immediately and hinted at a possible meeting with Putin in Saudi Arabia, fueling speculation that the disruption to Moscow's oil supply could end. Meanwhile, concerns over Trump's threat of imposing new reciprocal tariffs on US trade partners added to market anxiety, potentially reducing economic...
Gold's price (XAU/USD) is rallying after traders bought Wednesday's dip and are driving prices back up to $2,920 at the time of writing on Thursday, while Bullion traders shrugging off the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January released on Wednesday. Traders are also ignoring the possibility of a peace deal formation with United States (US) President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who have spoken on the phone to outline a meeting soon to work out the broad strokes of a peace deal. Despite these quite substantial tail risks, Gold is rallying again,...
The dollar dropped versus most major peers as geopolitical developments increased appetite for riskier assets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index halves a 0.3% drop which came at the back of hopes for a solution to the war in Ukraine; investors also awaiting clarity around possible reciprocal tariffs. The euro led Group-of-10 gains earlier as it rose by as much as 0.6% to $1.0440, one-week high; while it pares gains, it's still headed for a third daily advance, longest winning streak this year. USD/CHF down 0.7% to 0.9071, lowest since Feb. 7; Switzerland's inflation rate...
Oil fell for a second day after President Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed to talks on ending the war in Ukraine, prompting speculation that impediments to Moscow's supplies may ease. Global benchmark Brent dropped below $75 a barrel after falling 2.4% on Wednesday, the most in more than two months. Trump said negotiations would start immediately, and that he would probably meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia in the "not-too-distant future." Elsewhere, the International Energy Agency again cut its projections for a global oil surplus this year, citing...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...