Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
Brent crude oil futures dipped below $76 per barrel but were still set for a 1.5% weekly gain, driven by concerns over supply disruptions in Russia and improving demand in the US and China. Russia reported a 30%-40% reduction in Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. Despite this, Kazakhstan has pumped record oil volumes. In the US, crude oil stockpiles rose, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell due to seasonal refinery maintenance. Tensions between Ukraine's President Zelensky and US President Trump escalated earlier in the...
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises against its major peers, except the US Dollar (USD), on Friday after the release of robust United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales data for January. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, rose at a robust pace of 1.7% in the month after contracting by 0.6% in December, revised lower from -0.3%. Economists expected the consumer spending measure to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.3% Year-on-year Retail Sales rose by 1%, beating the estimate of 0.6%, but remained lower than the 2.8% growth seen in 12...
Gold prices fell on Friday but were set for an eighth straight week of gains on the back of two consecutive record highs, as safe-haven demand remained strong amid concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans. Spot gold shed 0.4% to $2,926.54 an ounce by 0945 GMT. Bullion has gained around 1.5%this week after rising to a record $2,954.69 on Thursday. Source: Reuters
The euro fell after data showed business activity in the euro area hardly grew in February. The dollar remained on course for its longest weekly losing streak since September. EUR/USD drops as much as 0.3% to 1.0468; it fell to a fresh day low after French composite PMI data came in below forecasts and held losses following PMI data out of Germany. Investors added to bets on European Central Bank interest-rate reductions. Money markets are now pricing 78 basis points of easing this year compared with 74 basis points on Thursday. Bonds held gains, with the German 10-year yield three...
The USD/CHF pair recovers some lost ground around 0.8985 amid a modest rebound in US Dollar (USD) during the early European session on Friday. Investors brace for the preliminary US S&P Global PMI reports, which will be released later on Friday. Also, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Mary Daly and Philip Jefferson are set to speak later on the same day. Fed officials in January agreed they would need to see inflation ease more before lowering interest rates further. Policymakers are concerned about the impact Trump's tariffs would have in making that happen, according to meeting minutes...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...