Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
The dollar index pared its losses after data showed the US economy grew slightly faster in the second quarter than initially estimated, while US unemployment claims declined slightly last week. All Group of 10 currencies strengthened against the US dollar on Thursday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, a third straight day of declines. "The data suggests the economy may not be that weak," said Aroop Chatterjee, a strategist at Wells Fargo. "The Q2 GDP was revised up and the claims data suggest that layoffs in the labor market remain moderate." Investors now await Fed Governor...
Oil prices have been little changed in their recent narrow range as traders continue to monitor the possibility of a supply glut and US efforts to force India to halt purchases of Russian oil. Brent crude briefly touched below $68 per barrel, after trading between $65 and $70 for most of August. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro increased pressure on New Delhi to halt purchases of Russian oil after Washington doubled import duties from the country to 50%. The US has been squeezing India over its imports of Russian crude as part of its efforts to end the war in Ukraine. At the same...
Gold held firm near a more-than-two-week peak on Thursday, as the dollar softened and investors hunkered down for Friday's U.S. inflation data for cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $3,399.60 per ounce, as of 0851 GMT, after hitting $3,401.73, its highest level since August 11, earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery edged 0.2% higher to $3,456.20. The dollar index was down 0.1% against its rivals. Investors are awaiting the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the preferred inflation measure for the...
The U.S. dollar was little changed on Thursday (August 28th) as traders increased bets for a Fed rate cut next month after New York Fed Chairman John Williams hinted at the possibility of a rate cut. The U.S. currency is again under pressure from President Donald Trump's intensifying campaign to exert more influence over monetary policy decisions, as he seeks to oust Fed Chair Lisa Cook and replace her with a loyalist. The dollar weakened against the euro even after the French Prime Minister unexpectedly called for a no-confidence vote next month on Monday, which would likely lead to the...
Oil prices plummeted on Thursday (August 28th) after briefly rising in the previous session, pressured by expectations of lower US fuel demand as the summer holiday season ends and Russian supplies to Hungary and Slovakia resume via the Druzhba pipeline resume. Crude prices briefly rose on Wednesday after official data showed US crude inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending August 22nd, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.9 million barrel drop, a sign of strong demand. However, oil market participants view the upcoming US Labor Day holiday as...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...