Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose more than 0.5%, trading around $38.80 per troy ounce in early European trading on Thursday (August 28th). Non-yielding silver prices strengthened amid the increasing likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding precious metals compared to interest-bearing assets, making silver more attractive. Traders now price an 88% chance of a rate cut of at least a quarter point at the Fed's September meeting, up from 82% the previous week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This shift...
Oil prices fell on Thursday after rising in the previous session as investors weighed expectations for lower U.S. fuel demand with the end of the summer demand season nearing and focused on India's response to punitive U.S. tariffs. Brent crude futures dropped 63 cents, or 0.91%, to $67.43 at 0502 GMT, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 62 cents, or 0.97%, to $63.55. Both contracts climbed in the prior session after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ended August 22, compared with...
Silver climbed above $38.6 per ounce on Thursday, trading near one-month highs as the dollar retreated on growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Markets now assign an 89% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, up from 82% a week earlier. The shift came as President Donald Trump sought to exert greater influence over the central bank after attempting to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and replace her with a more dovish candidate. On the industrial side, silver demand drew support from robust photovoltaic sector data in China. Recent figures showed Chinese...
The Australian dollar appreciated to above $0.650 on Thursday, extending its rally for the third consecutive session, supported by tempered expectations of another near-term rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market pricing now implies only around 34 basis points of additional easing for the rest of 2025, with the likelihood of a September move slipping to about 25%. Analysts expect the central bank to wait until the November meeting before resuming its easing cycle. The Aussie also drew support from a softer US dollar, as traders ramped up bets on a September Fed rate cut after...
Gold dipped to around $3,380 per ounce on Thursday, retreating from a two-week high as investors awaited fresh policy signals ahead of Friday's PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Nevertheless, the metal held near record levels, supported by political and institutional uncertainty between the US administration and the Federal Reserve. President Trump recently moved to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, but her lawyer vowed to challenge the decision in court, setting up a legal battle. Traders also increased bets on Fed easing, with markets pricing an 89% chance of a 25 bps...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...