The ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4 in October 2025 from 50 in September, beating forecasts of 50.8, pointing to the strongest expansion in the services sector since February. Both business activity (54.3 vs 49.9) and new orders (56.2 vs 50.4) rebounded while the continued contraction in employmet (48.2 vs 47.2) shows a lack of confidence in the continued strength of the economy. "There was no indication of widespread layoffs or reductions in force, but the federal government shutdown was mentioned several times as impacting business activity and generating concerns for future layoffs",...
The US economy entered 2025 with a fair amount of momentum. However, GDP growth in the first quarter of the year looks to be soft. Real consumer spending declined in January, although the weakness may be attributable, at least in part, to bad weather. Furthermore, the surge in imports in January, which mechanically reduce GDP (everything else equal), will also weigh on output growth in Q1. In our view, the surge in imports reflects front-running ahead of potential increases in tariff rates.Tariff announcements have come and gone in recent weeks. In terms of our forecast, we assume that the...
US President Donald Trump said Monday that auto tariffs would go into effect soon, though he indicated that not all of the levies he has threatened would go into effect on April 2 and that some countries might get waivers, a move Wall Street took as a sign of flexibility on an issue that has roiled markets for weeks. At the same time, Trump opened another front in the global trade war by imposing secondary tariffs of 25% on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, a directive that sent oil prices soaring. At the White House, Trump told reporters that not all of the new tariffs...
United States (US) President Donald Trump spoke with reporters in Washington, DC on Monday, re-announcing plans to issue additional tariffs on automobiles, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals "soon". This follows the Trump administration's recent unilateral 25% import tax on all steel and aluminum entering the US. President Trump also took the opportunity to make a new tariff threat, announcing that the US would be imposing an additional 25% tariff on all goods coming to the US from countries that buy Venezuelan Crude Oil products. Never one to miss an opportunity to make a statement, Donald...
The S&P Global US Services PMI rose to 54.3 in March 2025, a three-month high, from 51 in February, surpassing market expectations of 50.8, preliminary data showed. Service sector output rebounded strongly after hitting a 15-month low in February, driven by improved business inflows, strengthening customer demand, and better weather conditions. However, exports remained a weak spot, declining for the third straight month. Employment edged up in April, reversing February's small decline, though job growth remained sluggish as firms hesitated to hire amid demand uncertainty. Input costs...
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March 2025 from 52.7 in February, missing market expectations of 51.8, a preliminary estimate showed. Manufacturing output declined after February's sharpest increase in nearly three years, with factories reporting fewer instances of output being boosted by the front-running of tariffs and new orders growth nearly stalling. Input purchasing in the sector also slipped back into decline. However, export sales saw their smallest decline in nine months, supported by rising orders from Canada, Germany, and other EU countries, suggesting...
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher, tracking Wall Street gains overnight.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 0.41% after hitting a fresh record high on Thursday, while the Topix added 0.61%. South...
Both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 hovered around the flatline on Friday, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of further developments in trade talks between US President Trump and Chinese...
American consumers struggling to access food assistance payments due to the government shutdown are unable to fill their shopping carts, and that's "hurtful," according to the company behind Stop...