The Kremlin said it was "taking note" of Donald Trump's threat to sharply shorten Vladimir Putin's deadline to end his war in Ukraine, although it stressed that the Russian president was unlikely to change course.

"I would like to avoid making any judgments" about Trump's statement, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday. Russia continues the war and is also committed to resolving the conflict "and to ensuring our interests in this settlement," he said.

Trump threatened on Monday to impose secondary sanctions within 10-12 days on countries buying Russian exports, including energy, unless Putin accepts a ceasefire, instead of the 50 days he announced earlier this month. "There's no reason to wait. If you know the answer," he said.

The US president has voiced growing frustration over Putin's refusal to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine to allow for peace talks, after returning to the White House in January on a campaign promise to quickly end the war, now in its fourth year. Six phone calls between the two leaders have yielded little progress, and increased Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine in recent weeks have reinforced the US perception that Putin intends to continue the invasion.

"Putin is not guided by what Trump expects of him and is not afraid of new sanctions," said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. "Putin believes there is nothing left but military conflict and needs to redouble military efforts until Ukraine collapses and slowly begins to fall into Russian hands."

At the same time, there is skepticism in Moscow that Trump will follow through on his threats, having repeatedly delayed action against Putin in the past. Ukrainian and European leaders thought they had Trump's support in May for an ultimatum demanding Putin accept an immediate ceasefire before negotiations, but then the US leader backed down when Putin offered talks without a ceasefire.

In July, Trump stated that he was preparing a "big statement" on Russia. That statement turned out to be his announcement of a 50-day deadline for Putin to agree to a ceasefire, something Moscow interpreted as a window allowing its military to intensify efforts to seize more territory in Ukraine at the height of the summer fighting season.

While maintaining relations with Trump is important to Putin, the Russian leader "has no desire to stop, and even more so under pressure," said Moscow-based political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov.

Markets responded with more nervousness. The ruble continued to weaken on Tuesday, hovering around 82 per dollar in Moscow, after falling nearly 3% after Trump's statement to its lowest level since mid-May. Oil prices rose, amid concerns over potential disruptions to Russian oil supplies or increased costs due to flow diversions. The Brent benchmark traded above $70 per barrel after a 2.3% gain in the previous session, the largest in two weeks.

Russia is one of the world's top three oil producers after the US and Saudi Arabia, exporting more than 3 million barrels per day by sea alone, and supplying crude to major consumers such as India and China. Any significant disruption to Russian flows in the near term would require increased supply from other major producers and the diversion of existing barrel flows, just as the global market remains tight amid strong summer demand.

Peskov said there are no plans for a meeting between Putin and Trump. The US president told reporters in Scotland on Monday that he was "not particularly interested in talking again" with Putin because the previous conversation followed the deadly Russian attack in Ukraine.

Putin "hopes there will be a normal conversation with Trump, in which it will be possible to explain" Russia's position, according to Stanovaya. He now "sees no alternative" but to continue the invasion, even though the Russian public is tired of war and the economy is facing growing pressure, he said.

Russia's response "to Trump's ultimatum will be the same as to all ultimatums over the past 500 years," Sergei Markov, a Moscow-based political consultant close to the Kremlin, said on Telegram. "Get lost! Go to hell!" (alg)

Source: Bloomberg