The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its monetary policy decision and publish its revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), known as the dot plot, after its September policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate the US central bank will cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since last December, lowering it to a range of 4%-4.25%. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors see only about a 6% chance of a larger rate cut, while pricing in about an 80% chance of a 75 basis point (bps) cut for the remainder of the year. This means the...
Chief Powell participates in a moderated discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit, in New York. Key Takeaways Independence lets the Fed make decisions for all Americans, not any political party. There is broad support in both parties for an independent Fed; do not think there is risk of losing it. The U.S. economy is in remarkably good shape. Feel very good about where monetary policy is. Do not think appointment of a "shadow" Fed chair is on the table. Feel the same institutional relationships between the Fed and the Treasury will continue under the new...
U.S. consumer spending increased slightly more than expected in October, suggesting the economy retained much of its solid growth momentum early in the fourth quarter, but progress on lowering inflation appears to have stalled in recent months. The lack of success in bringing inflation back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, together with the prospect of higher tariffs on imported goods from the incoming Trump administration, could narrow the scope for interest rate cuts from the U.S. central bank next year. The Fed is still widely expected to deliver a third rate cut in December, with...
Federal Reserve officials conveyed optimism that inflation is subsiding and the labor market remains robust, supporting the possibility of further interest rate cuts, though at a measured pace, minutes from November 6-7 meeting showed. Officials noted that monetary policy decisions are contingent on economic trends and cautioned against making premature rate cuts. The volatility in recent data and uncertainty about the neutral interest rate's impact on economic activity made policymaking particularly challenging. Some participants suggested keeping rates at restrictive levels if inflation...
Donald Trump's Republicans are promising to hit the gas next year when they assume full control of the U.S. Congress, with little to stop them from executing the president-elect's promises to slash taxes and reorder the global trade landscape. But the $28 trillion Treasury debt market is flashing a red warning light against adding excessively to a debt load already expanding at a pace of $2 trillion a year. What is yet to be seen is whether these concerns will be enough to slow Republican lawmakers' ambitions or push them to find offsetting savings on a tax break agenda estimated to cost...
MRB warns of fewer cuts next year.The Fed is likely to rein in its forecast for rate cuts next year as Fed members are teeing up the idea of a higher neutral rate pointing to much shallower rate-cut cycle, MRB Partners said in a recent note. "Investors should expect the Fed's median forecast of the longer-run (or neutral) policy rate to rise ahead," strategists at MRB Partners said. "The implication is that Fed will ease rates less next year than what it had signaled in the September dot-plot, and what the bond market has been pricing in." The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in November...
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher, tracking Wall Street gains overnight.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 0.41% after hitting a fresh record high on Thursday, while the Topix added 0.61%. South...
Both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 hovered around the flatline on Friday, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of further developments in trade talks between US President Trump and Chinese...
The United States has rejected India's request for consultations at the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding Washington's 50% tariffs on copper and copper derivative products, arguing that the...