The Australian dollar slipped to around $0.650 on Wednesday, ending two consecutive sessions of gains, pressured by growing expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets are now pricing in a 97% chance of a 25bps cut in July, with futures implying a total of 75bps of easing to 3.1% by the end of the year.
This sentiment follows a string of soft economic data, including just 0.2% GDP growth in Q1, weak consumer spending, and falling business investment—raising concerns the RBA may have waited too long to act. Adding pressure, the US dollar firmed ahead of key US inflation data due later today, which could influence the Fed's rate outlook.
Still, the Aussie remains near its YTD peak, supported by optimism over US–China trade talks, which continue to support risk sentiment and underpin the China-proxy currency. Though details remain undisclosed, the discussions reached a preliminary deal to implement their Geneva consensus, aiming to ease trade tensions.
Source: Trading Economics
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