The Japanese Yen (JPY) sticks to intraday gains led by the stronger-than-expected release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), which keeps the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Furthermore, the optimism that Japan might strike a trade deal with the US turns out to be another factor underpinning the JPY. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, fails to capitalize on the overnight modest recovery against its Japanese counterpart and drags the USD/JPY pair drags the USD/JPY pair back below the 147.00 mark during the Asian session on Thursday.

Meanwhile, hawkish BoJ expectations mark a big divergence in comparison to rising bets for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2025. This should continue to underpin demand for the lower-yielding JPY and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair remains to the downside. However, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment, bolstered by US President Donald Trump's announcement to pause reciprocal tariffs on most nations, might cap the safe-haven JPY. Traders might also opt to wait for the US consumer inflation figures due later today.
The Bank of Japan's preliminary report released earlier this Thursday showed that Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% in March and rose 4.2% compared to the same time period last year. The readings were higher than consensus estimates and could push up consumer prices, which, in turn, backs the case for further policy tightening by the BoJ and underpins the Japanese Yen.
US President Donald Trump agreed to meet Japanese officials to initiate trade discussions after speaking to Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba earlier this week. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's subsequent comments, saying that Japan may be a priority in tariff negotiations, fueled hopes for a possible US-Japan trade deal and turned out to be another factor that underpins the JPY.
The US Dollar rebounded against safe-haven currencies, including the JPY, on Wednesday after Trump declared an immediate 90-day pause on the big tariff increases for most countries. The announcement eased worries about the global economic impact of US trade policies, triggering a sharp rally in equity markets. The S&P 500 soared 9.5% and registered its biggest daily gain since 2008.
Meanwhile, the minutes of the March 18-19 FOMC meeting revealed that officials almost unanimously agreed that the US economy was at risk of experiencing higher inflation and slower growth on the back of Trump's trade tariffs. Policymakers, however, called for a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, forcing investors to trim their bets for more aggressive easing by the Fed.
Traders now expect the Fed to wait until June to resume its rate-cutting cycle and are pricing in just 75 basis points of rate reductions by the year-end. The USD bulls, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for the release of the US inflation figures the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday and Friday, respectively before positioning for further gains.

Source: Fxstreet