Oil prices rose on Wednesday (February 11th), supported by a combination of geopolitical risk premiums from US-Iran tensions and more solid Asian demand signals particularly from India which helped ease concerns about a market surplus. Market participants considered Middle East headlines to be "outweighing" the negative sentiment from the surge in US oil inventories.

At 09:15 GMT, Brent rose 78 cents (+1.13%) to $69.77 per barrel, while WTI gained 75 cents (+1.18%) to $64.52 per barrel. This increase extended the gains of the past two days, as the market reassessed a "risk premium" on strategic supply lines in the Gulf region.

From a geopolitical perspective, Tehran stated that nuclear talks with the US provided space to gauge Washington's seriousness and that there was still consensus to continue the diplomatic path. However, this optimism quickly ran counter to the risk of escalation after reports emerged that the US was considering the option of sending a second aircraft carrier if negotiations failed leading the market to reconsider supply disruption scenarios and potential Iranian responses.

Another supporting factor comes from India. Several Indian refiners are reportedly reducing purchases of Russian oil in the context of trade negotiations with the US which in turn is encouraging purchases from the Middle East and West Africa. This influx of demand is helping the market absorb the excess barrels seen in late 2025, easing surplus pressure somewhat.

On the US fundamentals front, the market is also awaiting official inventory data from the EIA. Consensus estimates crude oil stocks rose by around 800,000 barrels for the week ending February 6, while distillate and gasoline stocks are expected to fall. Previously, the API reported that US crude oil stocks jumped by 13.4 million barrels if confirmed, this would be the largest increase since November 2023 and could potentially restrain price gains if market focus shifts to the supply side.

Going forward, oil's direction will depend heavily on two triggers: (1) whether US-Iran headlines point to de-escalation or heighten the risk, and (2) whether EIA data confirms a significant stockpile increase. As long as Middle East uncertainty remains high, the market is likely to maintain a risk premium although room for volatility remains if stockpile data exacerbates demand concerns. (arl) [sma]

Source : Newsmaker.id