Oil prices continue to rise due to Russian supply risks (Primorsk, Ust-Luga, Kirishi) and a weakening dollar ahead of the Fed's potential 25 bps cut. Key points: Brent $67.20 / WTI $62.94; drone attacks potentially reducing Russian exports to India and China; weak Chinese data (factories/retail) but refinery throughput and apparent demand are rising; sentiment is also influenced by trade tariff news (G7/US) and concerns about US fuel demand. In essence, there is a supply risk premium lifting prices, while the mixed demand side is holding back any further rally.
Future Outlook: The short-term bias is likely to be moderately upward as long as the Russian disruption has not fully resolved and the USD remains soft post-Fed. A dovish Fed (-25 bps + further signals) will support oil; a cautious message could stall the rally. A rapid recovery of Primorsk/Ust-Luga operations ⇒ shrinking risk premium (prices could correct); Escalation of attacks ⇒ Increased risk premium (pushing prices higher). Things to watch: Confirmation of Russia's export status, FOMC results and Powell's tone, US-China talks, and the release of US fuel demand data. These four factors are likely to direct the next movement. (ads)
The oil price at the time of writing was $67.12.
DISCLAIMER
Note: This article is analytical and not a definitive reference. Consider fundamental and technical developments in trading before making any investment decisions.
Source: Newsmaker.id
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