The oil market is currently facing strong bearish fundamental pressure. The IEA estimates that global supply will increase rapidly—around 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025—while demand growth continues to weaken, reaching only around 680,000 bpd, due to weak consumption in developed countries, as well as China, India, and Brazil. OPEC+ responded by ending its production cuts and instead increasing output, exacerbating the global surplus. Recent data shows that US shale oil producers are reducing investment and even decommissioning rigs as oil prices fall below breakeven.

Other analysis suggests that Brent is attempting a rebound from the $64.75–65.00 support zone, with the potential for an increase towards $67 if it manages to hold above that level. If not, the decline could continue to $64.00.