Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the economic impact of new tariffs is likely to be significantly larger than expected, and the central bank must make sure that doesn't lead to a growing inflation problem. "While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected," Powell said Friday at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing annual conference. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth." Despite that view, in a...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market consensus. The committee also kept the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.0%. Source: Trading Economics
In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said they should wait for things to get clearer when there is so much uncertainty. Key points "There has been a clear shift toward anxiety and anticipation of capital spending among business contacts." "The current conditions may be a shock to the economy depending on how long they last." "The Fed needs to be calm and take a long-term view of the economy." "Markets want information quickly but that's not realistic right now." "There's still a lot of strength in the economy right...
Will the Fed signal more or less rate cuts? Higher inflation expectations and dimmer growth prospects compete with each other. All eyes are on Chair Powell. Fed may opt for patience amid panicThe Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to leave interest rates unchanged at its March meeting. However, every word that Chair Jerome Powell says and every change to the bank's forecasts are critical for markets. In the last "dot plot" in December, the bank signaled only two rate cuts are due in 2025, half of what it previously forecasted. That hawkish twist came as the economy looked strong and...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...