Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan mused about making key policy adjustments at the Fed on Monday, stressing the need for more effective policy communication.The US has more room to reduce reserves.Responding to banks' increased short-run demand for reserves is a recipe for an ever-expanding central bank balance sheet.As reserve levels drop, preferable for the Fed to seek to meet lower long-run bank demand for reserves rather than the higher short-run demand.Fed balance sheet should hold primarily treasuries in the long run.I was encouraged to see the use of the...
The US economy is slowing, according to a monthly index released Monday, increasing the likelihood that policymakers will cut interest rates next month. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index fell slightly to minus 0.19 in July from a downwardly revised minus 0.18 in June. A reading below zero indicates slower growth than the long-term average. Employment indicators remained negative on the index, a fresh sign of fragility in the US labor market. This weakness is one of the main reasons for a rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting next month. Central bank Chairman Jerome Powell last week...
Investors cheered Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole address, which gave a green light to buy risky assets on the hope the central bank is ready to cut rates, but took his dovish message with a note of caution as they see a risk of stagflation ahead and worry markets are over-optimistic. In his final address as Fed chair at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic symposium, Powell hinted at a September interest rate cut but stopped short of committing, striking a careful balance between mounting job-market risks and lingering inflation worries. The speech on Friday came amid...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top White House ally. "I'll fire her if she doesn't resign," Trump told reporters on Friday. The comments intensify Trump's pressure campaign against the US central bank, which he has bashed for months over its decision to hold interest rates steady. He's attacked Fed Chair Jerome Powell over monetary policy decisions as well as cost overruns for a major renovation of the...
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell assessed that the US economy remains resilient: the job market is near its maximum, inflation has fallen well from its peak, but the balance of risks is shifting. In his speech on "Monetary Policy and the Fed's Framework Review" in Jackson Hole, he stated that current policy remains restrictive and that changes in the outlook could require policy adjustments. Powell outlined new challenges this year: higher tariffs in many trading partners, a slowdown in immigration that is depressing labor force growth, and changes in fiscal and regulatory policies. He emphasized...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...