Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
The Federal Reserve is likely to start a series of interest-rate cuts next week and keep going through the end of the year, traders bet on Wednesday after tamer-than-expected producer price inflation last month calmed worries that price pressures would hold the central bank back from policy easing. Traders stuck to bets the Fed will start with a quarter-point reduction at its meeting next week, and continue with same-sized cuts through year-end, based on pricing of futures contracts that settle to the Fed's policy rate. The producer price index increased 2.6% in August from a year earlier,...
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the 2025 preliminary benchmark revision to the Establishment Survey Data on Tuesday, September 9. The preliminary revision will cover the 12-month period through March 2025 before the final benchmark revision is reported within the employment report of February 2026. "Official establishment survey estimates are not updated based on this preliminary benchmark revision. The final benchmark revision will be incorporated into official estimates with the publication of the January 2026 Employment Situation news release in...
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Thursday that he sees lower risks to inflation as tariffs have driven up price pressures less than expected. "I see on the margin...a reduction of some of the upside risks to inflation" from tariffs, Williams told reporters after speaking at the Economic Club of New York. He noted this reduction comes alongside greater clarity about future economic policy. Williams acknowledged that President Donald Trump's import tax increases are "definitely" affecting price pressures, but added that in terms of tariff pass-throughs to higher...
Several Federal Reserve officials who spoke on Wednesday said labor market worries continue to animate their belief that rate cuts still lie ahead for the central bank. "I've been clear that I think we should be cutting at the next meeting," Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in an interview with CNBC, reiterating the view he has held for some time and led him to dissent at the late July Fed meeting in favor of an easing. "You want to get ahead of having the labor market go down because usually when the labor market turns bad, it turns bad fast," he said. He added that a rate...
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on Tuesday laid out in greater detail her opposition to President Donald Trump's bid to remove her from office, saying it was too late to fire her for mortgage information she disclosed during her confirmation process. In a filing in U.S. District Court, Cook said she listed mortgages on three properties on forms submitted to the White House and U.S. Senate in the vetting process for her appointment to the Fed in 2022. Any inconsistencies were known when she was confirmed and cannot give Trump grounds to fire her now, she said. Trump and Federal Housing...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...