Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that short-term interest rates should be 1.5 to 1.75 percentage points lower than current levels, urging the Fed to begin a series of cuts starting with a 50bps reduction in September. Speaking to Bloomberg News television network, he said, "We should probably be 150, 175 lower. I think the committee needs to step back." The Fed's benchmark rate has been at an effective 4.33% since January, after three cuts late last year, as it monitors the economic impact of tariffs. President Trump has also pushed for cuts since early this year,...
Traders are now pricing in a 99% probability of a 25-bps interest rate cut at the September 17, 2025, Federal Reserve meeting, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. This is up from yesterday's probability of 91.4%. Further, traders now see a 1.4% probability of a 50-basis point cut at the upcoming meeting. Previously, there was zero chance of such an outcome. The current federal funds rate is at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. President Donald Trump and his administration have been pressing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a cut for months, saying the high rates are costing the...
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin believes that consumer spending behavior—now increasingly selective and inclined to "trade down"—can mitigate price spikes caused by import tariffs, potentially making future inflationary pressures more moderate than feared. He conveyed this view in a series of speeches and comments this week, including ahead of an event titled "Why the Consumer Matters" scheduled for Wednesday evening WIB at the Greenville Chamber of Commerce. Barkin also signaled caution regarding the possibility of an interest rate cut in September, emphasizing the uncertainty...
Australia's seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index rose 3.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, matching the previous quarter's pace and exceeding expectations for a 3.3% increase. Acceleration in both the public and private sectors drove stronger-than-expected growth. Public sector wages jumped 4.7%, up from 3.6% in Q1, while private sector wages rose 3.4%, compared with 3.3% previously. This marks a recovery for the private sector, which had previously recorded its weakest growth since Q2 2022 in the previous two quarters. Overall, the electricity, gas, water, and waste services industry recorded...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.6% from 3.85%, following the conclusion of the August monetary policy meeting. The decision came in line with the market expectations.(alg) Sumber: FXstreet
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...