Conflicting signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing and magnitude of U.S. interest rate cuts have accelerated hedging flows into swaptions and derivatives tied to overnight rates, with investors seeking protection against heightened policy uncertainty. Short-term volatility --specifically three-months and under -- on longer-dated swaptions such as those on 10-year and 30-year swaps has picked up following a prolonged period of compression. Swaptions, which are options on interest rate swaps, are one segment of the more than $600 trillion over-the-counter rate derivatives market....
Federal Reserve officials broadly agreed heightened economic uncertainty justified their patient approach to interest-rate adjustments, minutes from their latest policy meeting showed Wednesday. Policymakers judged the risks of both higher unemployment and inflation had risen since their previous meeting in March, primarily due to the potential impact of tariffs. Such a scenario could pit the Fed's goals of stable prices and maximum employment against one another. "Participants agreed that with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy...
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the Minutes of its May 6-7 meeting on Wednesday (5/28). At that time, policymakers decided to maintain the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely anticipated by market participants. The Federal Reserve (Fed) took a more aggressive stance earlier in the year, amid concerns about the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on economic progress and inflation. Officials not only decided to keep rates on hold, but they also gave no hints about future rate cuts, maintaining the wait-and-see stance they took...
During a panel hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, San Francisco and Cleveland Fed Bank Presidents Mary C. Daly and Beth Hammack both took the opportunity to express concerns about the current state of the U.S. economy. While economic data remains strong, U.S. trade policies have left many consumers and businesses increasingly frustrated. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also participated in the event, adding to his earlier comments made on Tuesday. The Trump administration's erratic and erratic tariffs threaten to strain the logistics of U.S. trade, which relies heavily on...
Long-term interest rates are now notably higher, driven mainly by increased real rates rather than shifts in inflation expectations, while estimates of the longer-run neutral policy rate have also risen, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday. Speaking about the Fed's ongoing review of its policy framework, last updated in 2020, Powell said the economy has changed a lot since then. He warned that inflation might become more volatile in the future due to more frequent supply shocks, which could make it harder for central banks to achieve price stability. Throughout his remarks, Powell...
The Bank of England cut its main interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25% on Thursday, despite an unexpected three-way split among policymakers as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs weigh on global economic growth. The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favour of the decision to cut rates by a quarter point. Two members, Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, voted for a bigger half-point cut while Chief Economist Huw Pill and external member Catherine Mann wanted to keep interest rates on hold. The decision by the British central bank is its first since Trump announced...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...