The Fed will meet on October 28-29, 2025. This meeting is crucial because the market still considers the possibility of an interest rate cut, but its direction will be heavily influenced by the September CPI (US inflation) release, which was rescheduled to Friday, October 24 due to the shutdown. Therefore, the Fed is really waiting for the data before making a decision.
In his last speech (October 14), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the US economy was "stronger than expected," but the job market was weakening. This means the Fed remains cautious and will determine policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis. This is also because some official data is delayed due to the shutdown, so they don't want to overcommit before seeing the CPI this Friday.
The Fed has indicated a high probability of a rate cut at its October meeting, but the magnitude of the move and the certainty of its timing will be determined by the CPI results. Essentially, inflation figures remain key to sentiment ahead of the FOMC meeting.
Source: Newsmaker.id
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