Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
Gold edges lower in early Asian trade on possible position adjustments. However, gold's losses could be limited by safe-haven demand tied to worries about the Fed's independence and risks over France's political situation. U.S. President Trump's move to dismiss Fed Governor Cook has injected uncertainty over the Fed's independence, IG's Axel Rudolph says in an email. Also, the French prime minister's austerity plan and looming confidence vote on Sept. 8 have stoked risks of a potential government collapse, the senior technical analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.1% lower at $3,390.64/oz. Source:...
Oil steadied after dropping by the most since early August as investors counted down to the imposition of higher US tariffs on India. The US is due to double tariffs on some Indian goods to 50% in a bid to punish the country for taking Moscow's oil. Oil has shed more than 10% this year as the US-led trade war fanned worries about demand, and OPEC+ unwound supply curbs at a rapid clip. Oil steadied after dropping by the most since early August as investors counted down to the imposition of higher US tariffs on India over its purchases of Russian crude. West Texas Intermediate traded...
GBP/USD rebounded from early-week losses on Tuesday, bouncing back up from a fresh technical floor near the 1.3450 level. Cable has been drifting within familiar technical levels as broad-market investor sentiment grinds to a halt ahead of key US economic figures. It'll be a quiet market session on Wednesday; meaningful economic data is functionally absent on both sides of the Atlantic. Investors will be on the lookout for further political headlines from the Trump administration as traders await results from President Donald Trump's attempt to directly "fire" Dr. Lisa Cook from the Federal...
USD/JPY eased slightly on Tuesday, backsliding around one-quarter of one percent and keeping the pair hobbled just below the 148.00 handle. The pair has been adrift in a tight consolidation pattern since the beginning of August, and Yen traders are unlikely to find much of a reason to kick off a new trend ahead of key economic data. US and Japanese inflation looms large this weekUS Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) will land on markets on Friday. Investors will be increasingly apprehensive as the week progresses; global markets are broadly hoping for a fresh round of...
AUD/USD is holding steady between familiar technical levels after catching a thin bid on Tuesday. US economic releases will take a breather on Wednesday, giving Aussie traders a chance to catch their breath, at least after the next round of Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. The latest US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) inflation figures loom large later this week, pushing investor sentiment into the middle ahead of the key data print. Before then, US data remains fairly limited, and data reactions will likely stay constrained. Australia's monthly CPI...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...