Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
The Australian dollar appreciated to above $0.650 on Thursday, extending its rally for the third consecutive session, supported by tempered expectations of another near-term rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market pricing now implies only around 34 basis points of additional easing for the rest of 2025, with the likelihood of a September move slipping to about 25%. Analysts expect the central bank to wait until the November meeting before resuming its easing cycle. The Aussie also drew support from a softer US dollar, as traders ramped up bets on a September Fed rate cut after...
Gold dipped to around $3,380 per ounce on Thursday, retreating from a two-week high as investors awaited fresh policy signals ahead of Friday's PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Nevertheless, the metal held near record levels, supported by political and institutional uncertainty between the US administration and the Federal Reserve. President Trump recently moved to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, but her lawyer vowed to challenge the decision in court, setting up a legal battle. Traders also increased bets on Fed easing, with markets pricing an 89% chance of a 25 bps...
The US dollar started Thursday (August 28th) weakly at $98.13 after market speculation increased that a Fed rate cut would occur in September, following a signal from New York Fed President John Williams that a cut was "possible." Pressure also stemmed from President Donald Trump's increasingly aggressive efforts to influence monetary policy, attempting to fire Fed Chair Lisa Cook and replace her with a more dovish figure. In the foreign exchange market, the DXY held steady at 98.135 after two days of declines. The euro edged up to $1.1646 despite the heated French political situation,...
Gold edges lower in early Asian trade as investors continue to weigh the impact of a legal battle between Trump and Fed governor Lisa Cook. However, gold demand in Asia remains robust, with China's July net imports via Hong Kong more than doubling from June, Traze.com analyst Osama Al Saifi notes. Investors will pay attention to U.S. PCE data due Friday. The data could shape expectations after Powell's dovish tone at Jackson Hole, Al Saifi adds. Spot gold is 0.1% lower at $3,396.56/oz. Source: Bloomberg
Oil edged lower as traders looked past US efforts to force India to quit buying Russian crude, and broader markets carried a risk-off tone. West Texas Intermediate fell below $64 a barrel, while Brent closed above $68. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro stepped up the pressure on New Delhi to halt purchases of Russian energy after Washington doubled a levy on imports from the country to 50%. Calling Indians "arrogant," he cast the conflict in Ukraine as "Modi's war," referencing the Indian prime minister. Financial markets including stocks were softer in...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...