Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
Oil futures finished sharply higher Monday after members of OPEC+ - made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - said they would wait yet another month before beginning to unwind 2.2 million barrels a day in production cuts. Natural-gas prices, meanwhile, posted a gain of more than 4%, buoyed by an intensifying weather system, currently referred to as Tropical Depression 18, that may be heading to the Gulf of Mexico, putting oil-and-gas infrastructure at risk. West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for December delivery CL.1 CLZ24 rose $1.98, or nearly...
Gold edged lower midafternoon as traders turn cautious with the dollar and yields falling ahead of tomorrow's U.S. presidential election and this week's interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve. Gold for December delivery was last seen down US$3.00 to US$2,746.20 per ounce. The rise comes ahead of Tuesday's U.S. election, with polls showing a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, as the two candidates offer much different economic policies. Harris is expected to continue much of the Biden Administration's policies while Trump plans blanket tariffs on imports. A...
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.2890 and 1.2980. In the longer run, GBP must break and remain below 1.2845 before a sustained decline can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note. 24-HOUR VIEW: "After GBP dropped sharply last Thursday, we highlighted on Friday that ‘The sharp drop appears to be overdone, and GBP is unlikely to weaken further.' We held the view that GBP ‘is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 1.2860 and 1.2950.' GBP did not weaken further, but instead of trading in a range, it rose to...
Gold is edging lower in early European trade as markets exercise caution ahead of a busy week between the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. Futures trade 0.2% lower at $2,743.00 a troy ounce, but are still up nearly 3% on the month and more than 30% year-to-date. Uncertainty around the election outcome--with the latest opinion polls showing a neck-and-neck race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump--has stoked demand for the safe-haven asset in recent days. Meanwhile, traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points,...
Oil advanced after OPEC+ agreed to push back its December production increase by one month and tensions escalated again in the Middle East. Brent rose as much as 2.5% to more than $74 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed above $71. Saudi Arabia and its allies delayed a series of monthly output hikes until early next year, a move anticipated by many traders amid fragile market conditions. Meanwhile, Iran escalated its rhetoric against Israel with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning of a "crushing response" in a speech on Saturday. The Wall...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...