Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
The U.S. dollar was set for its biggest weekly gain in over a month on Friday, as markets reassessed expectations of future interest rate cuts and with the view that President-elect Donald Trump's policies could stoke inflation. The dollar has benefited from market expectation that Trump administration policies, including tariffs and tax cuts, could stoke inflation, leaving the Federal Reserve less room to cut interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday the U.S. central bank did not need to rush to lower interest rates, prompting traders to axe their more aggressive bets on...
Oil fell, deepening a weekly loss, on mixed economic and consumption data from China, the lingering impact from a stronger US dollar and concerns that the market will flip to a supply glut next year. Global benchmark Brent dropped below $72 a barrel in London and was down by around 3% this week. The International Energy Agency said on Thursday it expects a surplus next year as demand growth in China slows, while global output swells. The glut will be even bigger if OPEC+ presses on with plans to revive halted production. In China, while figures on Friday showed...
Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to gain ground around $2,570 on Friday (11/15) after rebounding from a two-month low in the previous session. The precious metal remained under selling pressure amid a stronger US Dollar (USD) and growing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) move to cut interest rates. Expectations of higher inflation next year due to Donald Trump's policies have led to fewer expected rate cuts, weighing on the yellow metal as higher rates make non-yielding assets such as bullion less attractive. However, rising tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing conflict...
The Australian Dollar (AUD) held near a three-month low against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The recent downtrend in the AUD/USD pair was largely driven by key economic data from Australia released on Thursday. Moreover, the AUD remained unaffected by mixed economic data from its close trading partner, China. China's Retail Sales rose 4.8% year-on-year in October, beating the 3.8% forecast and the 3.2% increase seen in September. Meanwhile, the country's Industrial Production grew by 5.3% YoY, slightly below the 5.6% forecast but higher than the 5.4% growth recorded in the previous...
Oil is headed for a weekly decline, weighed down by the impact of a stronger dollar and concerns that the global market will shift into a supply glut next year. West Texas Intermediate was steady near $69 a barrel, and more than 2% lower this week, while Brent closed above $72. The International Energy Agency said on Thursday it expects a surplus next year as demand growth in China slows while production increases. The supply glut would be even greater if OPEC+ goes ahead with a plan to revive stalled output, it said. Commodities including crude have struggled this week as the dollar gauge...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...