Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
Gold (XAU/USD) prices struggled to capitalize on its modest intraday uptick to the $2,600 range, albeit managed to hold in the positive territory through the early European session on Monday (18/11). Concerns over escalating geopolitical tensions, coupled with a weaker US Dollar (USD), turned out to be key factors that acted as a tailwind for the safe-haven precious metal. However, expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) capped gains for the yellow metal that did not deliver a balanced outcome. Investors remain hopeful that US President-elect Donald Trump's expansionary policies...
The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday (11/18). However, the decline in the AUD/USD pair could be limited due to aggressive comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock on Thursday. Bullock emphasized that interest rates are currently quite tight and will not change until the central bank is confident about the inflation outlook. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Australian government bond eased slightly to around 4.66%, down from a one-year high. Recent data showed a slowdown in employment growth in October, while...
Oil prices edged up on Monday after fighting between Russia and Ukraine intensified over the weekend, although concerns about fuel demand in China, the world's second-largest consumer, and forecasts of a global oil surplus weighed on markets. Brent crude futures gained 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $71.33 a barrel by 0502 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $67.20 a barrel, up 18 cents, or 0.3%. Russia unleashed its largest air strike on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, causing severe damage to Ukraine's power system. In a significant reversal of Washington's...
Gold rose near $2,600 per ounce on Monday, rebounding from its biggest weekly drop since 2021, as the rally in the US dollar paused. Latest data in the US showed retail sales rose more than expected in October, underscoring the economy's resilience. Comments from some Federal Reserve officials last week also added uncertainty regarding the timing and extent of potential rate cuts. Still, markets are currently pricing in around 65% chance of a 25bps rate cut in December. Investors are now focused on upcoming remarks from other Fed policymakers this week, seeking clearer guidance on the...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks. Ueda did not signal a December interest rate hike, which seemed to disappoint investors and weighed on the JPY. Moreover, a generally positive risk tone was seen as another factor that dented demand for the JPY as a safe-haven. However, speculations that the Japanese authorities might intervene in the forex market to support the domestic currency kept JPY bears from placing aggressive bets. This,...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...