Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
WTI crude futures fell 0.8% to $70.70 a barrel on Friday, but are up about 1% this week, as hopes for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine eased supply concerns. President Donald Trump has resumed peace talks after Putin and Zelenskiy signaled interest in ending the conflict. The potential lifting of sanctions on Moscow could boost global energy supplies, although the International Energy Agency noted that Russian oil exports may continue through alternative channels. Meanwhile, a delay in reciprocal U.S. tariffs provided some stability to oil prices, as investors grew more optimistic...
Gold prices briefly dipped below $2,900 on Friday (2/14), but are expected to end the week with a solid gain of more than 0.80% as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend. Economic data in the United States (US) was mixed, although the US dollar hit a yearly low and US Treasury yields plunged. XAU/USD was trading at $2,883, down 1.48% on the day. Retail sales in the United States fell sharply in January, weighing on the US dollar, which continued to weaken across the board. However, the precious metal benefited as traders squared off their positions amid fresh headwinds for gold, which...
The dollar index fell to 106.8 on Friday after much weaker-than-expected retail sales figures raised concerns about the strength of the consumer spending. Retail sales declined 0.9% last month, compared to forecasts of a smaller 0.1% fall and the control sales which is used to calculate GDP declined 0.8%, although consumer spending was likely hit by harsh weather and wildfires in LA. Meanwhile, both CPI and PPI exceeded forecasts, though the PPI components feeding into the PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, showed signs of cooling. The data has reinforced the Fed's cautious...
Oil rose after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration remains committed to reducing Iran's oil exports. Brent futures added as much as 1.1% in London after earlier trading little changed. Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business that the US is keen to cut Iranian oil exports to 100,000 barrels a day. He also said that if President Trump asks, he will introduce more sanctions on Russian energy. The comments injected some volatility into an otherwise quiet trading session. So far this week oil markets have been gripped by Trump's...
Silver extended its rally past the $33 per ounce mark on Friday, the highest in over three months and outperforming other bullion as its demand in electrification and manufacturing magnified the the support from a global pivot to safety. The unexpected rebound in the ISM Manufacturing PMI for January improved the outlook for US factory demand following more than two years of monthly contractions. Additionally, new data showed that China put up 357 gigawatts of solar and wind power in 2024, among the main uses of industrial silver. Also on the solar power front, India's Oil and Natural Gas...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...