Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from $2,890, citing sustained central bank demand. The bank estimates that "structurally higher central bank demand will add 9% to the gold price by year-end, which combined with a gradual boost to ETF holdings as the funds rate declines." This should outweigh the drag from normalizing investor positioning, assuming uncertainty diminishes, Goldman Sachs added. However, if policy uncertainty, including tariff concerns, remains high, Goldman sees the potential for gold to surge to $3,300 per ounce...
Silver prices held steady above $32 an ounce on Monday (2/17) after experiencing wild swings in the previous session. The metal found support from a weaker dollar, boosted by weak US economic data and easing concerns over a global trade war. Investors are also keeping an eye on US-led efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine, which could dampen demand for safe-haven assets such as silver. However, silver hit a three-month high on Friday as strong industrial demand, especially from the electrification and manufacturing sectors, supported prices. Recent data showed that China is adding 357...
GBP/USD traded for its fifth straight easy gain on Monday (2/17), rising almost a third of a percent and re-passing the 1.2600 mark. Currency market flows were limited to start the new trading week with US markets quiet due to the Presidents Day holiday. UK Average Earnings for the three months to December are expected to rise on a yearly basis on Tuesday. The headline figure for bonuses and allowances taken into account is expected to come in at 5.9%, compared to the previous reading of 5.6%. The UK Claimant Count Change for January is also projected to rise to 10,000 net new jobless...
Oil prices rose on Monday as attacks on Caspian Sea oil pumping stations slowed oil flows from Kazakhstan, while investors monitored developments on a possible Moscow-Kiev cease-fire agreement that could ease sanctions and boost global supplies. The dollar index, which hovered near a two-month low after weaker-than-expected U.S. retail data for January, also boosted oil prices by making crude cheaper for non-U.S. buyers. Brent crude futures settled at $75.22 a barrel, up 48 cents. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 65 cents at $71.39 a barrel at 2:33 p.m. EST, and did not close at...
Gold prices rose on Monday (17/) during the North American session, posting a gain of 0.56% amid thin trading as markets in the United States (US) were closed for Presidents Day. XAU/USD was trading at $2,898 after hitting an intraday low of $2,878. Gold posted its biggest loss since December 18 last Friday, but the outlook for the precious metal looks promising amid geopolitical uncertainty and US trade policy aimed at narrowing the deficit. Data from the US was mixed last week with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) rising slightly. Retail Sales disappointed...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...