The ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4 in October 2025 from 50 in September, beating forecasts of 50.8, pointing to the strongest expansion in the services sector since February. Both business activity (54.3 vs 49.9) and new orders (56.2 vs 50.4) rebounded while the continued contraction in employmet (48.2 vs 47.2) shows a lack of confidence in the continued strength of the economy. "There was no indication of widespread layoffs or reductions in force, but the federal government shutdown was mentioned several times as impacting business activity and generating concerns for future layoffs",...
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Trump administration's tariffs posed a significant shock to the US economy that might force the Fed to cut rates to avert a recession, though they could also be just a negotiating tactic with minimal lasting impact.New tariff policy one of the biggest shocks to affect US economy in decades.I believe higher inflation from tariffs will be temporary.If current 25% average tariff rate stays for some time, inflation could peak near 5%.In this large-tariff scenario, drag on output, employment could be longer-lasting; unemployment could rise to 5%.Under...
Consumer confidence in the US continued to deteriorate in April, with the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 50.8 in the flash estimate from 57 in March. This reading came in worse than the market expectation of 54.5. The underlying details of the report showed that the Current Conditions Index fell to 56.5 from 63.8 in the same period, while the Consumers Expectations Index worsened to 47.2 from 52.6. The one-year inflation outlook component of the survey jumped to 6.7% from 5%, and the five-year inflation outlook edged higher to 4.4% from 4.1%. Source:...
Core producer prices in the United States, which exclude food and energy, declined by 0.1% from the previous month in March of 2025, contrasting sharply with market expectations of a 0.3% jump to reflect the first decline in eight months. From the previous year, core producer prices rose by 3.3%, the least in six months, from the 3.5% in February. Source: Trading Economics
The current US tariff rate will drag China's GDP growth lower by c.1.8ppt. Any further increases in tariffs are likely to have little impact on China's growth. Another CNY 1.5-2.0tn of fiscal support is needed, supported by moderately loose monetary policy, Standard Chartered's economists report. The perfect storm"Over the past week, the US and China have announced sweeping tariffs in multiple rounds of retaliation. As of now, China's tariff on US products has jumped to 142%, and the US' tariff on China has surged to 157%, according to our estimate. As bilateral tariffs are already...
Chinese President Xi Jinping will embark on a three-nation Southeast Asia tour next week in his first overseas trip this year to consolidate ties with some of China's closest neighbours as trade tensions with the United States escalate. Xi will visit Vietnam from April 14-15, and Malaysia and Cambodia from April 15-18, state-run Xinhua news agency reported on Friday. China, hit with 145% U.S. tariffs since President Donald Trump took office this year, is quickly moving to reinforce relations with other countries who also lie in the shadow of Washington's damaging trade levies. Some of the...
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher, tracking Wall Street gains overnight.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 0.41% after hitting a fresh record high on Thursday, while the Topix added 0.61%. South...
Both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 hovered around the flatline on Friday, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of further developments in trade talks between US President Trump and Chinese...
American consumers struggling to access food assistance payments due to the government shutdown are unable to fill their shopping carts, and that's "hurtful," according to the company behind Stop...