The ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4 in October 2025 from 50 in September, beating forecasts of 50.8, pointing to the strongest expansion in the services sector since February. Both business activity (54.3 vs 49.9) and new orders (56.2 vs 50.4) rebounded while the continued contraction in employmet (48.2 vs 47.2) shows a lack of confidence in the continued strength of the economy. "There was no indication of widespread layoffs or reductions in force, but the federal government shutdown was mentioned several times as impacting business activity and generating concerns for future layoffs",...
Federal Reserve Board of Governors (Fed) member Christopher Waller reiterated his argument for why the Fed should cut interest rates earlier in July. In a speech at the Dallas Fed, Waller noted that the inflationary impact of tariffs would likely be short-lived and stated that a rate cut would not be politically motivated. Fed Governor Waller is one of the favorites to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in 2026. Key Highlights Tariffs raise prices once, and the central bank can anticipate that. The impact of tariffs is not zero, but it is also not large. Waller argued that a moderately...
Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 5,000 from the previous week to 227,000 on the first period of July, below market expectations of a 2,000 increase to 235,000. It was the fourth consecutive decline in initial claims to the lowest count in seven weeks, consolidating the view that the US labor market remains relatively robust to high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Still, outstanding unemployment claims rose by 10,000 to 1,965,000, the most since 2021, to solidify concerns that hiring is slowing. Initial claims filed by federal government employees, which have been under...
The impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff agenda is likely to be seen in the upcoming second-quarter corporate earnings season, according to analysts at Capital Economics. Despite having largely delayed the implementation of his punishing "reciprocal" levies first unveiled in April, Trump has left a baseline 10% tariff in place, as well as heightened duties on items like steel, aluminum and autos. The effective U.S. tariff has in turn increased compared to its level at the beginning of Trump's second term earlier this year, analysts have suggested. This week, Trump has...
US President Donald Trump has threatened Latin America's largest economy, Brazil, with a 50% tariff on exports to the US. He also ordered an investigation into alleged unfair trade practices, which could lead to even higher duties. Trump set the August 1 tariff rate, far higher than the 10% duty imposed on Brazil on April 2. Brazil is the United States' 15th-largest trading partner, with total two-way trade amounting to USD 92 billion in 2024, and a rare US trade surplus of USD 7.4 billion. Brazil was one of eight countries mentioned in letters Trump posted on Wednesday, which outlined...
The minutes of the United States Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting on June 17-18 will be released on Wednesday at 6:00 PM GMT. Policymakers decided to keep the benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range, but the revised Summary of Projections (SEP) shows that policymakers project two 25 basis point (bps) rate cuts in 2025. Jerome Powell and co. decided to leave the policy setting unchanged after the June meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at its June meeting. In its policy statement, the US central bank...
Asia-Pacific markets traded higher, tracking Wall Street gains overnight.
Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 0.41% after hitting a fresh record high on Thursday, while the Topix added 0.61%. South...
Both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 hovered around the flatline on Friday, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of further developments in trade talks between US President Trump and Chinese...
American consumers struggling to access food assistance payments due to the government shutdown are unable to fill their shopping carts, and that's "hurtful," according to the company behind Stop...