Donald Trump's tariffs on China are likely to remain at levels that are expected to severely restrict Chinese exports to the U.S. after a 90-day truce, analysts and investors say, suggesting Beijing may have to endure further economic pain despite active talks.

U.S. levies on Chinese goods imposed this year are likely to remain at 30% through the end of 2025, according to a Bloomberg survey. While much lower than before this week's thaw, the current tariffs are high enough to wipe out 70% of China's shipments to the world's largest economy in the medium term, according to Bloomberg Economics projections.

The survey, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday with 22 respondents, showed low expectations for trade talks to quickly undo the tariffs Trump imposed on China during his second term. Official data due Monday is expected to show China's industrial output slowed in April as the threat of tariffs weighed on exports, a separate survey showed.

"We expect the trade talks to end in a shallow, surface-level deal," said Kelly Chen, an economist at DNB Bank. "There is not enough time for the relative positions of the U.S. and China to change materially" before the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, a potential deadline for a deal, he said.

Highlighting uncertainty over the countries' ability to resolve their dispute, expectations became more divided further into the future, with seven respondents seeing tariffs falling below 30% within six months while six projected higher levies.

If the U.S. and China reach a final trade deal, tariffs could drop to 20%, according to the median forecast.
Respondents overwhelmingly predicted that tariffs from Trump's first term would remain in place, as lowering them would be a major concession that would anger his base. The average levies are about 12%, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates. Trump's tariff policy on Chinese goods is one of the biggest variables influencing the global economy and markets this year. Chinese assets are likely to trade in a narrow range near current levels through the end of the year amid tariff and stimulus uncertainty, respondents said. (Newsmaker23)

Source: Bloomberg