Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more "noise" than signals of a short-term surplus. As of 3:50 PM WIB, Brent was at $69.60/barrel (+0.29%) and WTI was at $64.83/barrel (+0.31%). The gains were moderate, but enough to keep prices near the psychological $70 level for Brent. From a geopolitical perspective, market focus is on the potential for escalation in the Middle East. Recent reports...
Global growth faces an "increasingly challenging" outlook due to potential headwinds from sweeping tariffs denting the U.S. economy, the OECD flagged in a statement lowering its estimate for economic activity this year. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development slashed its projections for global gross domestic product growth for 2025 to 2.9% from an earlier estimate of 3.1%. Expected global GDP is also tipped to grow by 2.9% next year, down from a prior estimate of 3.0%. Increases in trade barriers and elevated policy uncertainty all pose "significant risks" to growth in...
Britain's trade minister Jonathan Reynolds will meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Tuesday to discuss the implementation of a trade deal that has been complicated by the announcement of fresh U.S. tariffs on steel. Reynolds will review recently agreed deals with counterparts from the U.S. and EU, Britain's two biggest trading partners, during a three-day trip to Paris and Brussels this week. The deals struck last month are both political pacts rather than formal trade agreements, and the details of their implementation have not been set out. Starmer and U.S. President Donald...
The Trump administration is reportedly working to deliver on a final trade deal deadline set for Wednesday. A draft letter to various U.S. trading partners sets the deadline so close, Reuters reports, to try and push for faster trade talks as the U.S. scrambles to unveil a major trade deal the administration says is imminent. Trump's team is pushing for a deal to avoid its own tariffs Time is running out for the Trump team to secure, finalize and announce trade deals with other countries that support Donald Trump's "America First" campaign pledge. The White House has temporarily suspended...
A group of small businesses that won a ruling that most of President Donald Trump's global tariffs are illegal wants the tariffs blocked during the government's appeal, saying they are suffering direct harm from economic uncertainty. In a filing Monday with the U.S. Court of International Trade, which last week ruled that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing broad trade levies, the groups opposed the administration's request to keep the tariffs in place during its appeal. The appeals process is likely to drag on for months, so a pause would be a win for the White House. It's unclear...
The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 48.5 in May 2025 from 48.7 in April, below market expectations of 49.5. The reading marked the third consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and the sharpest decline since November 2024, highlighting mounting economic uncertainty and sustained cost pressures, partly driven by volatile trade policies under the Trump administration. Output, new orders, employment, and backlog of orders all declined but at a slower pace, while new export sales dropped more sharply. Meanwhile, the Inventories Index slipped into contraction...
Trump said he would increase tariffs on Steel and Aluminium to 50% from 25%, effective 4 June. He made the announcement as he visited a US Steel Corp. plant on Friday. Later on, Trump said he would raise Aluminium rates in a Truth Social post, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note. Trump says the tariffs are aimed at bolstering domestic production "The US imports significant volumes of Aluminium and Steel from Canada. It imports roughly half of its Aluminium needs from abroad, with Canada the biggest supplier, accounting for 58% of imports, followed by 6% from the...
China on Monday refuted Washington's claims that it had broken the Geneva trade agreement, instead accusing the U.S. for breaching deal terms, signaling talks between the worlds top two economies have taken a turn for the worse. Trade frictions between Washington and Beijing have flared up after a hiatus following a meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterpart He Lifeng in Geneva, Switzerland, that had led them to suspend most tariffs for 90 days. The Trump administration has ratcheted up export restrictions on semiconductor design software and...
China's Commerce Ministry on Monday rejected accusations from U.S. President Donald Trump that the country had violated a recent trade agreement signed in Geneva, Switzerland. China claimed it had "taken seriously, strictly implemented, and actively upheld the consensus reached at the talks with U.S. in Geneva," the Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. The statement said Washington had "made bogus charges and unreasonably accused China of violating the consensus, which is seriously contrary to the facts". "China firmly rejects these unreasonable accusations," the commerce ministry...
Gold rises in the early Asian trade. There's a broad commodities uptrend, driven by macro uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and persistent demand for "hard" assets, says Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst...
Oil extended declines after OPEC+ agreed to a bigger-than-expected production increase next month, raising concerns about oversupply just as US tariffs fan fears about the demand outlook.
Brent...
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against its US counterpart and reversed part of Friday's recovery from the lowest level since July 23 following Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks....