The U.S. dollar will weaken steadily over the coming months on mounting concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, the credibility of official statistics, ballooning fiscal debt and rising bets on interest rate cuts, a Reuters survey of foreign exchange analysts showed on Tuesday.
Underscoring those concerns, President Donald Trump's dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner last week over unproven claims of data rigging - following record downward revisions to job numbers - prompted a swift reversal of recent dollar gains from Trump's tariff deal with the EU.
While there was a modest pullback from a crowded short-dollar trade, the greenback is still down nearly 9% this year against a basket of major currencies.
Trump's erratic tariff moves, repeated attacks on the U.S. central bank and Fed Chair Jerome Powell and rising debt levels have made investors rethink holding U.S. assets and raised the term premium - compensation demanded for holding long-term debt.
Reflecting that sentiment, foreign exchange strategists, who have maintained a bearish dollar outlook since at least April, forecast in an August 1-5 Reuters poll that the euro would gain around 2% to $1.17 by the end of October and continue to rise to $1.18 in six months.
The euro would then rise to $1.20 in a year - the highest survey median since October 2021.
"We've been trading in this environment of U.S. exceptionalism and the U.S. being far and away the strongest economy in the world. That just isn't the case anymore in my view," said Erik Nelson, head of G10 FX strategy at Wells Fargo.
"There are underlying structural concerns - Fed independence, data quality, you name it. When it comes to the economic backdrop, all that is heading in the wrong direction. The temptation for the foreseeable future will be to sell the dollar on rallies."
An overwhelming majority, 89 of 100 top policy experts in a separate Reuters survey, raised concerns over the accuracy of U.S. government statistics days before Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer.
Source: Investing.com
The USD/CHF pair weakened for the third consecutive day and traded around 0.7960 in early European trading on Tuesday. The Swiss franc strengthened on increased demand for safe haven assets, following...
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trended sluggishly around 99.06 on Monday (January 19th), as liquidity thinned as US markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Despite limited movement, global sent...
The US dollar is expected to rise for a third straight day on Thursday (January 8), but trading remains cautious as investors position themselves ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Recen...
The dollar index edged up to 98.5 on Tuesday, its strongest level in more than two weeks, as investors focused on a slate of key economic data for the US. Recent indicators have pointed to some soften...
The US dollar opened 2026 weakly on Friday. Throughout last year, the dollar was pressured by many major currencies due to narrowing interest rate differentials between the US and other countries. Con...
Oil prices stabilized on Thursday (February 12th), as the market reassigned a risk premium to US-Iran tensions despite US inventory data showing swelling domestic supplies. This movement confirms one thing: geopolitical headlines are still more...
Gold prices weakened slightly on Thursday (February 12th), as more solid US employment data reduced market confidence in an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The strong employment data prompted market participants to shift expectations of...
The Hang Seng Index reversed its downward trend in Hong Kong on Thursday (February 12th), weakening by around 0.9% to around 27,000 after a strong session earlier. This decline halted the momentum of the short term rally, as investors began to...