Friday, 18 July 2025
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EUR/USD drops below 1.1600 as strong US data slashes Fed cut odds
Friday, 18 July 2025 04:35 WIB | EUR/USD |EUROPE

EUR/USD tumbles during the North American session, down 0.38% following the release of economic data from the United States (US), which triggered a reaction by investors, who trimmed their bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates. At the time of writing, the pair traded at 1.1598, having reached a high of 1.1642.

Risk appetite improved after US President Donald Trump denied rumors that he planned to sack Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. News flows had remained light, though economic data from the US continues to justify the Fed's current stance, which most officials had revealed as appropriate, as the labor market is solid, Retail Sales improved, and Tuesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed that inflation is on its way to 3%.

Before Wall Street opened, Initial Jobless Claims for the previous week came below estimates. At the same time, Retail Sales for June crushed May's data and economists' forecasts, although the data suggest that increases in goods and services prices may be responsible for the upbeat report.

Fed speeches had been grabbing the headlines, with Governor Adriana Kugler, San Francisco Fed Mary Daly, and recently. Atlanta's Fed President Raphael Bostic. He said that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain, adding that tariff adjustments are the cause blocking the path to further rate cuts.

Across the pond, the Eurozone (EZ) inflation report showed that prices ticked up, but they remain closer to the 2% goal by the European Central Bank (ECB), in contrast to US inflation.

Ahead this week, the European economic docket will feature Germany's Producer Price Index (PPI) figures as the primary catalyst for the Euro, with estimates suggesting that the disinflation process continued to evolve. In the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is awaited, along with speeches from the Fed.

Source: Fxstreet

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