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Oil Prices Plunge Ahead Of Expected OPEC+ Output Hike
Friday, 4 July 2025 23:26 WIB | OIL |Minyak WTIbrent oil

Oil futures fell more than 1% on Friday, pressured by expectations that OPEC+ producers will decide later this week to raise output and by Iran's reaffirmation of its commitment to nuclear nonproliferation.

Brent crude futures fell 70 cents, or 1.02%, to $68.10 a barrel by 10:06 a.m. ET (1406 GMT) while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 72 cents, or 1.07%, to $66.28. Trading was thin due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday.

Both contracts were on track for small weekly gains, with Brent trading about 0.5% higher than Friday's close and WTI about 1.2% higher.

The eight-nation OPEC+ group is likely to raise oil output again for August at its meeting on Saturday in an effort to increase market share. The meeting was brought forward a day to Saturday.

"If the group decides to increase its output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August, as expected, for the fourth consecutive month, the oil balance estimates for the second half of the year will be reassessed and will show an acceleration in the buildup of global oil reserves," said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

Crude prices were also pressured by a report on the US news website Axios, which said the United States planned to resume nuclear talks with Iran next week, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran remained committed to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

US President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would meet with Iranian representatives "if necessary" even as the US imposed new sanctions targeting Iran's oil trade. Meanwhile, uncertainty over US tariff policy is back in the spotlight as the end of a 90-day pause on higher levies approaches.

Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday outlining the tariffs they will face on goods shipped to the United States, a clear departure from previous promises to reach a series of individual trade deals.

"The oil market may well turn the corner next week after we get the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting at the weekend and with the Trump tariff deadline coming up next week," said Investec's head of commodities, Callum Macpherson.

Separately, Barclays said it had raised its Brent oil forecast by $6 to $72 a barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 due to the improving demand outlook. (alg)

Source: Reuters

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