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Oil Heads For First Monthly Drop Since November On Trump Tariff Concerns
Saturday, 1 March 2025 03:53 WIB | OIL |

Oil prices fell on Friday and headed for their first monthly drop since November, as markets braced for Washington's tariff threats and Iraq's decision to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region.

Uncertainty over OPEC's planned April production restart and ongoing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine also weighed on investor sentiment.

More active May Brent crude fell 83 cents, or 1.12%, to settle at $73.21 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $69.78 a barrel, down 57 cents, or 0.81%.

Front-month Brent, which expires on Friday, traded at $73.28, down 76 cents.

Both benchmarks were on track for their first monthly decline in three months.

Baghdad is set to announce in the coming hours the resumption of oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through an Iraq-Turkey pipeline, the Iraqi oil ministry said in a statement.

Iraq will export 185,000 barrels per day through state oil marketer SOMO, and that amount will increase gradually.

"The resumption of exports raises questions about how Iraq will comply with its OPEC+ obligations, having routinely produced above its quota," said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

"If OPEC+ delays the return of the 120,000 barrels per day of voluntary cuts that began in April, then Iraq's build will exceed that limit," he added.

OPEC+ is debating whether to increase oil output in April as planned or freeze it as its members struggle to read the global supply picture, eight OPEC+ sources said.

Economists at BMI Fitch's research unit said market participants were struggling to gauge the impact of all the energy-related policy announcements made by the Trump administration this month.

U.S. President Donald Trump said Thursday his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods would take effect on March 4, along with additional 10% duties on Chinese imports.

Traders are cutting risk amid rising volatility fueled by Trump's escalating tariff war, particularly against China, which has significantly raised concerns about global demand, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

A tariff war could slow global growth, stoke inflation and, in turn, hurt demand for crude.

Factors including expectations of a U.S. economic slowdown, tariffs and the possibility of peace in Ukraine, which could make more Russian oil available, have curbed investor risk appetite.

Also weighing on investor sentiment, data showed U.S. jobless claims jumped more than expected in the previous week, while another government report provided further evidence that economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter.

Oil prices rose more than 2% on Thursday as supply concerns resurfaced after Trump revoked a permit granted to U.S. oil major Chevron to operate in Venezuela.

The cancellation could lead to negotiations on a new agreement between U.S. producers and state-owned PDVSA to export crude to destinations other than the United States, sources familiar with the talks said. (Newsmaker23)

Source: CNBC

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