Gold prices fell on Tuesday as investors fled from safe-haven assets and continued to monitor remarks from Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed).

As Fed Powell began his two-day semi-annual testimony before Congress, his prepared remarks stated that "the Fed's obligation is to prevent a one-time increase in price-level from becoming an ongoing inflation problem by keeping inflation expectations well-anchored." Although these comments are supportive of potential rate cuts in the last quarter of the year, easing geopolitical risks appear to be the dominant driver of current price action.

With prices now moving closer toward $3,300, Gold remains sensitive to changes in geopolitics and rate expectations. Further comments from Powell are expected to remain key drivers of price action ahead of Friday's inflation data.

Risk appetite was lifted on Tuesday after United States (US) President Donald Trump confirmed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, posting on Truth Social: "THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!"

In response to prospects of a de-escalation in the Middle East tensions, XAU/USD fell and has continued to decline throughout the day.

Despite the apparent breakthrough, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered retaliatory strikes after claiming Iran violated the agreement hours after both nations agreed to the ceasefire, allegations that Tehran denies.

US President Donald Trump announced the initial ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday evening during an address at Capitol Hill, stating that "Stability in the Middle East is essential for global peace."
The announcement followed Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Qatar, which were intercepted without casualties.

The ceasefire has pressured Gold and Crude Oil prices as traders unwind risk hedges tied to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global Oil supply.

The reduced threat of supply disruption would help lower inflation expectations, a key theme for the Fed, which is facing pressure from Trump to cut interest rates.

Although markets are pricing in two rate cuts this year, analysts are expecting the Fed to begin easing in September. Any changes to this narrative and these expectations could contribute to Gold's next move.
On Monday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she was "open" to rate cuts if inflation continues to ease.

The remarks echo similar comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller last Friday. Waller noted in a CNBC interview that "we could do this as early as July." According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut next month is at around 23%, up from 16% a week ago.

Friday's release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will also be key for market direction.

Source: Fxstreet