Gold hit a record at the start of the new quarter as a major escalation in US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs due this week heightened concerns about the global economy and fanned haven demand.
Bullion neared $3,150 an ounce, on pace for a fourth day of gains. Traders are on edge as Trump plans to announce sweeping levies on all of America's trading partners on Wednesday, raising the risks of retaliatory measures.
The precious metal has been one of the strongest performing commodities this year, posting its best quarter since 1986 in the opening three months. The ascent has been fueled by consistent central-bank buying, plus a rising tide of haven demand amid intensifying geopolitical and macro uncertainties.
"Gold begins the second quarter of the year from a historically strong position," Quasar Elizundia, a researcher at Pepperstone Group Ltd., said in a note. "The main driver behind this exceptional gold rally is the growing concern over escalating trade and geopolitical tensions."
Bullion is often the go-to haven in times of uncertainty. Holdings in physically backed gold exchange-traded funds have climbed more than 6% so far in 2025, following four years of net outflows, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's raised the total to the highest since September 2023.
Physical demand and a favorable macro backdrop are helping drive the rally, according to Amy Gower, a commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, which predicts prices may rise to $3,300-$3,400 this year. That outlook chimes with forecasts from other major banks, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now looking for $3,300 by year-end.
Recent buying of bars, coins and ETFs represents new inflows and there's "arguably plenty more to go," Gower told Bloomberg TV. "There's also the macro angle to gold — of how does it compete in an investor's portfolio against rates and equities and bonds."
Spot gold — which rose 19% in the first quarter — gained as much as 0.8% to $3,149 an ounce, and traded at $3,132.29 at 2:16 p.m. in Singapore. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed. Silver and platinum were flat, while palladium edged higher.
Source: Bloomberg
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