GBP/USD tested the 1.3550 area again for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, but has so far been unable to break higher. The market is likely to remain cautious ahead of the release of US consumer inflation (CPI) data on Thursday, which could be the next driver for the dollar and pound. On the producer side, US PPI inflation cooled faster than expected in August. Core PPI fell to 2.8% YoY from 3.5% previously, boosting market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates on September 17. The PPI reflects domestic price pressures because it excludes imported goods. However, price...
Gold held steady just below its record, around $3,645/oz, after an unexpected decline in US producer prices (PPI) fueled hopes of Fed policy easing. The market now awaits the release of US CPI data Thursday evening (WIB) for confirmation of the next direction. Current market expectations price a 25 bps price cut at the Fed's September 16-17 meeting as the main scenario, with a larger cut seen as less likely. Gold's sensitivity is high: cooler inflation data typically weakens the dollar/yields and supports bullion prices. Performance-wise, gold has gained ~38–39% through 2025, driven by...
The US dollar held steady early in the Asian session after the PPI data fell 0.1% in August, reinforcing expectations that the Fed would cut interest rates next week. The Dollar Index edged up to 97.822, marking a third consecutive day of gains. The market now awaits the release of the US CPI later tonight (WIB) for confirmation of its next direction. Market participants consider a 25 bps cut at the September 16-17 meeting almost certain. The chance of a 50 bps cut is only around 8%. Analysts' comments suggest the "benign" PPI result is in line with market pricing, shifting focus to the CPI...
Silver held around $41/oz, near a 14-year peak, as the market awaited the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, which could determine the size of the Fed's interest rate cut next week. Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (PPI) data fell 0.1% month-on-month (July revised down from +0.7%), missing the +0.3% forecast. Market participants had already priced in a 25 bps cut, with a 50 bps chance of around 8%. Safe haven demand also supported after President Donald Trump pushed the EU to consider tariffs of up to 100% on China and India to pressure Russia. On the industrial side, demand for...
The Australian dollar weakened slightly on Thursday after strengthening in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair still has room to recover as the US dollar faces pressure following weaker-than-expected US PPI data, which reinforced expectations of Fed easing in September. Domestically, the AUD received support as solid Australian data reduced expectations for further interest rate cuts by the RBA. The swap market now rates an ~86% chance of the RBA holding rates this month. Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.7% in September from 3.9% in August, reflecting stronger...