Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
Gold futures rise 0.1% to $2,749.0 a troy ounce. The precious metal had set a fresh all-time high of at $2,801.80 per ounce at the end of October, followed by a small sell-off. Gold stands out as the commodity of choice for hedging the upcoming U.S. elections, JPMorgan analysts say in a note. A Kamala Harris victory would suggest policy continuity and trend-like growth while a Donald Trump win could lead to significant policy changes, JPM says. Bullion could therefore see further upside on market uncertainty, should Republicans sweep the election under Trump. Gold should remain supported on...
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades broadly unchanged against its major peers, with investors focusing on the Bank of England's (BoE) policy meeting on Thursday. The BoE is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. This would be the second interest rate cut of the year. Seven Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are expected to vote for further policy easing, while the remaining two will likely support keeping rates steady. BoE external member Catherine Mann is expected to be one of two members who would vote to keep interest rates at their current levels. In a panel...
Oil prices traded in a narrow range on Tuesday ahead of what is expected to be an exceptionally close U.S. presidential election, after rising more than 2% in the previous session as OPEC+ delayed plans to hike production in December. Brent crude futures ticked up 14 cents, or 0.19%, to $75.22 a barrel by 0400 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $71.6 a barrel, up 13 cents, or 0.18%. "We are now in the calm before the storm," IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said. Oil prices were supported by Sunday's announcement from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries...
The dollar index traded around 103.9 on Tuesday, holding onto losses from the previous session as uncertainty over the outcome of the US presidential election led traders to unwind some of their "Trump trade" positions. Recent polls suggest a tighter race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump than initially expected, with market attention also focused on which party controls Congress, as a sweep could trigger significant changes in spending and tax policies. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to announce a more cautious 25-basis-point rate cut on...
Oil edges lower in the Asian morning session due to a possible technical correction. Oil futures closed sharply higher Monday after members of OPEC+ said they would wait another month before starting to unwind 2.2 million barrels a day in production cuts. While the move may temporarily bolster oil prices, the U.S. presidential election is a critical factor in determining oil price trends, XS.com's Rania Gule says in an email. Investors are closely watching, as the economic policies of the new U.S. administration will directly affect global oil demand, the senior market analyst...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...