Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
Silver (XAG/USD) met with fresh supply on Friday (08/11) and reversed a major part of the previous day's decent recovery move from over three-week lows. The white metal continued losing ground through the first half of the European session and refreshed daily lows, around the $31.30 area in the last hour. From a technical perspective, any further declines are likely to find some support near the $31.00 level ahead of the $30.85-$30.80 region, or multi-week lows. Some follow-through selling below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the August-October rally, around the $30.65-$30.60 area,...
Gold (XAU/USD) prices fell to the $2,680 area during the first half of the European session on Friday and was pressured by a combination of factors. Expectations that Trump's policies will spur economic growth and inflation, to a greater extent, overshadowed the Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish outlook, which in turn, helped revive demand for the US Dollar (USD). Moreover, the generally positive risk sentiment undermined the safe-haven precious metal. Meanwhile, a decline in the US Treasury bond yields might hold US investors from placing aggressive bets and help limit any further...
The Japanese yen stabilized around 152.8 per dollar on Friday after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato signaled that Japan would take "appropriate action" to address excessive foreign exchange fluctuations. Kato reiterated official warnings against speculative moves in the currency market and emphasized that the government is closely monitoring the impact of Donald Trump's policies on Japan's economy. Kato's comments came after opposition leader Yuichiro Tamaki warned that Trump's policies could intensify inflation in the US, potentially putting further downward pressure on the yen. On...
A gauge of the dollar inched higher after erasing much of its post-election gains in the previous session. Australia's dollar underperformed its Group-of-10 peers amid jitters before the outcome of China's key legislative meeting. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%. It closed 0.8% lower Thursday, after spiking 1.3% following Donald Trump's victory in the US election. Aussie fell on leveraged sales ahead of event risk posed by the National People's Congress meeting in Beijing, according to an Asia-based FX trader. "There are many people who want to buy the dollar on...
Oil headed for a weekly gain as the market digested the implications of a second Trump presidency, including whether it would spur an expansion of stimulus efforts from No. 1 importer China. Brent crude traded above $75 a barrel, and was up more than 3% for the week. West Texas Intermediate was near $72. China's top legislative body is set to unveil the largest fiscal package since the pandemic on Friday, and there are also signs the prospect of an extended trade war with the US means there will be more stimulus going into next year. A Donald Trump presidency may...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...