Markets are kicking around the idea of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, but Morgan Stanley isn't sure, warning that the odds may be closer to 50-50 despite widespread expectations. Strong economic indicators including solid GDP growth, healthy financial conditions, and low volatility stand in the way of a clear case for easing, the bank said in a recent report. Nominal GDP growth remains robust at over 5%, unemployment holds steady at 4.2%, and retail sales continue surpassing expectations, reflecting an economy far from needing stimulus, Morgan Stanley's economists said. "It cannot...
The AUD/USD pair attracted some buyers near 0.6540 during the early Asian session on Monday (11/25). The US Dollar Index (DXY) eased slightly after hitting a fresh two-year high despite strong S&P US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. On Monday, the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for November will be released. Upbeat US November PMIs failed to boost the greenback. Data released by S&P Global showed on Friday that the S&P US Global Composite PMI rose to 55.3 in the flash estimate for November from 54.1 in...
Oil prices climbed about 1% to a two-week high on Friday as the intensifying war in Ukraine this week boosted the market's geopolitical risk premium. Brent futures rose 94 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $75.17 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.14, or 1.6%, to settle at $71.24. Both crude benchmarks were up about 6% for the week, their highest settlements since Nov. 7 as Moscow stepped up its Ukraine offensive after Britain and the U.S. allowed Kyiv to strike deeper into Russia with their missiles. "The Russia-Ukraine escalation has raised geopolitical tensions...
Gold was higher for a fifth-straight session mid-afternoon on Friday, continuing a recovery from post-election losses even as the dollar rose to the highest level in two years. Gold for February delivery was last seen up US$39.20 to US$2,738.50 per ounce. The rise comes on safe-haven demand after Ukraine made its first attack on Russia using foreign missiles and Russia retaliated by firing a newly developed hypersonic ballistic missile at the city of Dnipro amid further nuclear threats from the country. The threats prompted safe-haven buying of the precious metal as it recovers from a...
Gold futures rise, on track for one of its strongest weekly gains in years. Futures are up 1.1% at $2,704.20 a troy ounce, and are up 5.2% on-week. The precious metal has recovered more than half its losses since a fresh record at the end of October was swiftly followed by a sharp sell-off. Given the threat of an escalation in the war in Ukraine, its gains reflect safe-haven demand, Commerzbank analysts say in a note. This has been demonstrated by significant inflows into gold ETFs in recent days, they say. According to the latest Swiss gold exports for October, demand for the precious...
The euro headed for its seventh weekly decline in eight as PMI data out of the euro area's two largest economies increased the chances of a big interest-rate cut by the European Central Bank next month. EUR/USD dives by 1.3% to 1.0335, lowest since Nov. 2022, before paring losses; huge stop entries went through on the breaks of 1.0440, 1.0400 and 1.0350 as digital options exposure kicks in, Europe-based traders say. Euro heads for its worst three-day decline since Sept. 2022; there's no strong technical support until Fibonacci level of $1.0201. Euro-area business...
President Donald Trump said he would fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors if she does not resign her post over mortgage-fraud accusations from a top...
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.1% during its April meeting, holding borrowing costs unchanged after slashing 25 bps in the February meeting, aligning with market...