Gold remains strong, driven by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and uncertainty in the US economy. Although the US government has reopened, investors continue to seek refuge in gold due to the lack of economic data and global concerns. However, if pending US economic data turns out to be positive or the Fed indicates that interest rates will remain high, gold prices could be under pressure. Technically, gold could consolidate before continuing to rise, so it's important to be alert to any policy changes or emerging economic data. At the time of this analysis's...
Gold remains supported by growing market expectations for monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, as investors doubt whether the data released after the government shutdown will support the economy. With US interest rates potentially falling, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold becomes lower. Furthermore, demand from central banks and investors as a hedge against geopolitical risks is also driving gold's advantage. However, the downside is also real: a stable or strengthening US dollar and rising bond yields will diminish gold's appeal. If US economic data improves and...
Global supply continues to surge as production from the OPEC+ bloc has resumed production cuts, while non-OPEC producers such as the US, Brazil, and Canada are actively adding capacity. For example, reports suggest that global supply growth could reach 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025, far exceeding demand, which is expected to grow by only around 0.7 million barrels per day. Under these conditions, the forward curve for Brent even indicated contango, indicating that the market is anticipating future oversupply. On the demand side, growth is starting to slow, particularly in major...