The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fumbled on Tuesday, losing enough ground to knock the megacap index back below the previous week's close, but still holding onto near-term consolidation levels. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation showed price pressures are still on the wrong side of Federal Reserve (Fed) targets, knocking investor hopes for a summer rate cut even further back.
US CPI inflation rose through the tail end of the second quarter. Despite the figures mostly keeping in line with or beating median forecasts, investors are still feeling the pressure from rising price pressures. Annualized headline CPI inflation rose to 2.7% YoY in June, moving in the opposite direction of the Fed policy target range of 2%. With inflation pressures still simmering away in the background, already-thin market hopes for an early rate cut from the Fed have evaporated.
According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, rate traders have fully priced in a rate hold at the Fed's July rate meeting. Hopes for a September rate cut also got knocked back post-CPI, with 44% odds of a continued hold on rates on the books. Rate markets are still holding out for two cuts in 2025 despite still-warm inflation measures, with 80% odds of at least a quarter-point rate cut priced in for October.
Source: Fxstreet
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