The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July 2025 from 49 in June, missing expectations of a rise to 49.5. This figure marked the fifth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and was the weakest since October of last year. The largest negative contributions came from declines in supplier deliveries (45.7 vs. 46.7) and employment (43.4 vs. 45.0). On the positive side, production increased (51.4 vs. 50.3), while declines in new orders (47.1 vs. 46.4) and backlogs (46.8 vs. 44.3) eased. Price pressures also eased, with the price index falling to 64.8 from 69.7. Source:...
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday (29) that they could return to a situation where interest rates could fall if tariffs are avoided through a deal or otherwise, according to Reuters. "If politics drives interest rates, inflation will come back," Goolsbee added, further noting that sometimes central banks have to do what the political apparatus doesn't like. "Stagflation is the worst case scenario for central banks; that's not what we're facing now." "This is the direction of stagflation, but it's not stagflation." Market reaction The US Dollar...
Federal Reserve officials broadly agreed heightened economic uncertainty justified their patient approach to interest-rate adjustments, minutes from their latest policy meeting showed Wednesday. Policymakers judged the risks of both higher unemployment and inflation had risen since their previous meeting in March, primarily due to the potential impact of tariffs. Such a scenario could pit the Fed's goals of stable prices and maximum employment against one another. "Participants agreed that with economic growth and the labor market still solid and current monetary policy...
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the Minutes of its May 6-7 meeting on Wednesday (5/28). At that time, policymakers decided to maintain the Fed Funds Target Range (FFTR) at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely anticipated by market participants. The Federal Reserve (Fed) took a more aggressive stance earlier in the year, amid concerns about the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on economic progress and inflation. Officials not only decided to keep rates on hold, but they also gave no hints about future rate cuts, maintaining the wait-and-see stance they took...
During a panel hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, San Francisco and Cleveland Fed Bank Presidents Mary C. Daly and Beth Hammack both took the opportunity to express concerns about the current state of the U.S. economy. While economic data remains strong, U.S. trade policies have left many consumers and businesses increasingly frustrated. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also participated in the event, adding to his earlier comments made on Tuesday. The Trump administration's erratic and erratic tariffs threaten to strain the logistics of U.S. trade, which relies heavily on...
Long-term interest rates are now notably higher, driven mainly by increased real rates rather than shifts in inflation expectations, while estimates of the longer-run neutral policy rate have also risen, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday. Speaking about the Fed's ongoing review of its policy framework, last updated in 2020, Powell said the economy has changed a lot since then. He warned that inflation might become more volatile in the future due to more frequent supply shocks, which could make it harder for central banks to achieve price stability. Throughout his remarks, Powell...
China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7 in June 2025 from May's 49.5, matching market expectations while marking the third consecutive month of contraction in factory activity.
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Both the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 hovered around the flatline on Friday, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of further developments in trade talks between US President Trump and Chinese...
The U.S. will levy a 30% tariff on South African exports next week, after Pretoria failed to reach a trade deal before President Donald Trump's deadline. The new rate is part of a broader executive...