US President Donald Trump said Monday that auto tariffs would go into effect soon, though he indicated that not all of the levies he has threatened would go into effect on April 2 and that some countries might get waivers, a move Wall Street took as a sign of flexibility on an issue that has roiled markets for weeks. At the same time, Trump opened another front in the global trade war by imposing secondary tariffs of 25% on any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, a directive that sent oil prices soaring. At the White House, Trump told reporters that not all of the new tariffs...
The US economy entered 2025 with a fair amount of momentum. However, GDP growth in the first quarter of the year looks to be soft. Real consumer spending declined in January, although the weakness may be attributable, at least in part, to bad weather. Furthermore, the surge in imports in January, which mechanically reduce GDP (everything else equal), will also weigh on output growth in Q1. In our view, the surge in imports reflects front-running ahead of potential increases in tariff rates.Tariff announcements have come and gone in recent weeks. In terms of our forecast, we assume that the...
Australia's monthly inflation indicator showed price pressures continued to cool in February, keeping the door open for the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates further, perhaps as early as next month. The inflation indicator rose 2.4% in the 12 months to February, slightly below market expectations and well entrenched within the RBA's target band, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. The data for February comes after the indicator held steady at 2.5% for the previous two months. The hot spots for price gains over the last year were in food and non-alcoholic...