Thursday, 02 July 2020
Jakarta
--:--
Tokyo
--:--
Hongkong
--:--
New York
--:--
BOE Says Brexit Uncertainty Skews Forecasts, Keeps Rate on Hold
Thursday, 1 August 2019 18:26 WIB | FISCAL & MONETARY |BOE

The Bank of England said it™s less confident than usual about the outlook for the economy because of Brexit and offered little new insight into the impact of no deal.

The comments are the first from the bank since Boris Johnson became prime minster on a mission to leave the European Union on Oct. 31 with or without new trading arrangements in place. If there™s no deal, the BOE merely noted again that the pound will fall, inflation will accelerate and growth will slow.

In its new forecasts Thursday, it specifically excluded the possibility of no deal. It assumes a smooth Brexit and reiterated that interest rates will need to gradually rise to bring inflation to target.

While that means Governor Mark Carney avoids a political headache, it will disappoint others who are looking for more clues as to how the BOE might respond to no deal.

That communications problem has dogged the governor for some time. To account for the market currently pricing in a rate cut because of the greater chance of a bumpy departure from the EU, it gave some stylized forecasts based on higher pound and interest rates. They show much slower inflation than the central scenario.

œThe increased uncertainty about the nature of EU withdrawal meant that the economy could follow a wide range of paths over coming years, the BOE said. œThe appropriate path of monetary policy would depend on the balance of the effects of Brexit on demand, supply and exchange rate.

The bank™s rate-setting committee voted unanimously to hold the key rate at 0.75% and to keep asset purchases unchanged.

As Brexit keeps the BOE in wait-and-see mode, the world™s biggest central banks are turning dovish as global growth cools and trade tensions persist. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday delivered a quarter-point cut and suggested there™s more to come. The European Central Bank is looking at adding more stimulus as early as September.

Investors expect the next BOE move to be a cut rather than a hike.

Acknowledging the weaker global backdrop, the BOE lowered its forecast for economic growth this year, sees slower export growth and weak business investment persisting into 2020.

In the stylized forecasts, one quarter-point rate hike over the next three years brings inflation below the 2% target.

That compares with a central forecast, based on the market™s expectation of a quarter-point cut, for inflation to pick up to 2.4%. The forecast also sees excess demand at a whopping 1.75%.

In normal circumstances, that would imply that the BOE should be raising rates soon. But given the uncertainty around Brexit, all nine policy makers deemed the current stance appropriate.

Source : Bloomberg

RELATED NEWS
ECB's Lagarde: Economic recovery will be a complicated matter...
Friday, 26 June 2020 15:19 WIB

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, while presenting at an Online Summit organised by the European Business Leaders' Convention, said that we probably have passed the lowest point...

Bank of England Steps Up Virus Fight With Bond-Buying Boost...
Thursday, 18 June 2020 18:35 WIB

The Bank of England intensified its response to the fallout from the coronavirus by expanding its bond-buying program, taking another step in the uphill battle to lift the economy out of the...

SNB Focuses on Franc Intervention With Rates Kept on Hold...
Thursday, 18 June 2020 14:48 WIB

The Swiss National Bank said aggressive foreign exchange interventions remain its main tool for pushing back against the appreciation in the franc caused by the coronavirus pandemic. K...

Fed Powell Beats Drum For More Government Aid To Bolster Economy...
Thursday, 18 June 2020 03:26 WIB

The U.S. economy is beginning to recover from the worst of the coronavirus crisis, but with some 25 million Americans displaced from work and the pandemic ongoing, it will need more help, Federal Rese...

Fed Chair Powell Says Strong Job Market Can Reduce U.S. Racial Inequality...
Tuesday, 16 June 2020 23:19 WIB

The best way the Federal Reserve can help reduce racial inequality is to return the U.S. labor market to its pre-coronavirus strength, U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday, as he sidestepped q...

LATEST NEWS
Dow futures up more than 200 points after Nasdaq hits record to start third quarter

Futures contracts tied to the major U.S. stock indexes rose early Thursday as investors awaited two closely watched jobs reports on the week's final day of trading ahead of the July Fourth holiday. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures indicated an...

Hang Seng Back Wriggling

The day before the holiday, the Hang Seng Index closed at 24,427.19, up 0.52% after being bullish above 1%. Following the official Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report rose to a three-month high of 50.9 in June from the...

Hong Kong stocks post strong gains

Hong Kong stocks soared Thursday, in line with a global advance on hopes for a virus vaccine and despite concerns over a draconian security law imposed on the city by Beijing that raised questions about its future as a business hub. The Hang Seng...

POPULAR NEWS
Gold futures end modestly higher, on track to tally a monthly gain
Tuesday, 30 June 2020 01:08 WIB

Gold futures settled with a modest gain Monday, with prices on track to end the month, as well as the first half of the year, higher. "There is...

July, Gold is Still Promising
Wednesday, 1 July 2020 16:41 WIB

Index futures closed above $ 1,800 per ounce on Tuesday, June 30, 2020, which also means closing in the first half of this year. Over the past six...

Gold futures end lower a day after highest finish since 2011
Thursday, 2 July 2020 01:28 WIB

Gold futures pulled back Wednesday, after settling a day earlier at their highest since 2011. "Gold remains in an uptrend but some fatigue may be...

Gold prices retreat to start July after the notching their highest finish since 2011
Wednesday, 1 July 2020 18:58 WIB

Gold futures were drifting lower Wednesday after topping $1,800 and marking the highest finish since in about nine years Tuesday, as uncertainty...