Tuesday, 25 June 2019
Jakarta
--:--
Tokyo
--:--
Hongkong
--:--
New York
--:--

Fed Meeting Will Not Be The Spark To Push Gold Prices Higher - Analysts
Monday, 18 March 2019 15:30 WIB | GOLD CORNER |Gold OutlookGold Corner

Once again the gold market is eking out a weekly gain as prices trade around the critical psychological level of $1,300 an ounce. However, according to some analyst, the market lacks a catalyst to push prices to last month's 10-month high.

Although down from its highs, the market is still preparing to the week with most gains last week, with April gold futures last traded at $1,302 an ounce, up 0.21% from the previous week.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank said that Thursday's 1% decline shows that the market is lacking conviction for higher prices. He added that resilience in equity markets is making gold a less attractive alternative for investors. The S&P 500 has broken above the psychological level at 2,800, last trading at 2828 points, up 3% from the previous week.

"Right now there appears to be no major need for an insurance policy so investors are shunning gold and turning to equities," he said. "I think there is growing frustration among gold investors and that is weighing on prices."

The question now on many market players' minds is what will be the catalyst to drive gold; according to some analysts anyone expecting a dovish Fed to be the spark to ignite a rally could be sorely disappointed.

It's All About The Fed

Once again all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve as it holds its monetary policy meeting this week and along with its interest rate decision will release updated economic projections. Economists are also expecting the central bank to unveil its plan to top its balance sheet reduction program.

"The median growth projection looks certain to be revised down," said economists at Capital Economics.

However, according to some analysts, these expectations are already baked into the market.

"I think the Fed pause story is largely played out," said Ryan McKay, commodity strategist with TD Securities. "Ultimately, if gold is going to go higher we need to see weaker U.S. data. The U.S. economy still appears strong compared to the rest of the world and that is keeping the U.S. dollar bid."

Although the central bank is expected to downgrade their growth and interest rate forecasts, Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, said that he does not expect the Federal Reserve to be anywhere near dovish as the European Central Bank was two weeks ago when it surprise markets with a shift in its forward guidance, not expecting to see any rate hike until at least the end of the year.

Lawler added that there is a risk that the Fed sounds hawkish as it downplays a potential slowdown in the domestic economy.

"If the Fed says that it's adjusting its growth because of risks in the global economy or anything along those lines that could make them sound a little hawkish," he said.

Hansen added that a goldilocks outlook from the Fed -- not too hot and not too cold -- will also keep a bid under equity markets, which will cap any rally in gold.

Gold Will Still Keep It's Head Above Water

Although the Federal Reserve is not expecting to be dovish enough to drive gold prices higher, analysts are still not ready to give up on the yellow metal just yet.

Lawler said that the trend in gold is still higher as he sees sticky support around $1,280 an ounce. He added that gold remain an attractive safe-haven asset as global economic uncertainty builds.

"Overall there is still strong appetite for gold," he said. "I expect that any significant drop in gold prices will attract new buyers."

Hansen said that although there is technical bearish threats building in gold, it difficult to see prices falling significantly lower.

"There are still a lot of reasons to hold gold so I don™t see much downside either," he said.

Hansen added that he continue to remain long-term bullish on gold as long as prices hold above the key retracement level around $1,275 an ounce.

McKay also said that he sees limited downside for gold because of the global economy. Although U.S. economy remains resilient to outside threats, it can't remain strong on its own.

"At this point in the growth cycle a slowdown is natural," he said. "But if something breaks in China and Europe that will impact U.S. growth as well. On the back of slowing global economy, I don't see a lot of reasons to be overly bearish on gold."

Technical Risks To Watch

Although Hansen is long-term bullish on gold, he said that he is watching gold's technical closely as the price action is creating a bear flag formation.

"If we break below the recent lows at $1,290, we could see a sharp selloff," he said.

Source: Kitco News

RELATED NEWS
You Can't Be Anything But Bullish On Gold After $1,400 Breaks “ Analysts...
Monday, 24 June 2019 15:44 WIB

Patience has finally paid off for the gold bull, as demand for the precious metal has pushed prices to levels not seen in nearly six years. Although gold prices are off their highs after breaking abo...

Wall St, Main St. Look For Still-Higher Gold Prices...
Monday, 17 June 2019 14:43 WIB

Gold hit its highest levels in more than a year on Friday, and Wall Street and Main Street look for the momentum to continue this week, based on the weekly Kitco News gold survey. The metal has been ...

Gold Has Enough Momentum To Push Through $1,350 This Week - Analysts...
Monday, 10 June 2019 15:06 WIB

The gold market is seeing its best weekly performance in more than a year and some analyst have said that the precious metal has enough momentum to break through critical long-term resistance in the n...

There Are No Bears On Wall St.; Main St. Also Sees Higher Prices...
Monday, 3 June 2019 11:53 WIB

Wall Street and Main Street look for gold to maintain its newfound upward momentum in this week, based on the weekly Kitco News gold survey. After two weeks before winds down, gold is getting a lift ...

Gold To Prioritize U.S. Economy And Geopolitics As Price Outlook Improves - Analysts...
Monday, 27 May 2019 14:13 WIB

Gold's short-term outlook is improving as the U.S. dollar is running out of reasons to keep going higher and the U.S. equities are raising doubts about their future performance, according to analysts....

LATEST NEWS
U.S. oil ends higher, but Brent falls as Trump administration announces additional Iran sanctions

Oil futures split two ways on Monday, with U.S. prices ending higher but global benchmark Brent crude posting a loss as the U.S. announced new sanctions on Iran. President Donald Trump on Monday signed an executive order imposing financial...

Gold notches a third straight session gain, its second above $1,400

Gold futures climbed sharply on Monday, extending their streak of gains to a third consecutive session. Weakness in the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yield, expectations for lower interest rates among global central banks, as well as...

Senior Facebook Executive Says it Would Favor Regulation

A senior Facebook executive says the social media site is in favor of regulation to address some of the dark problems of the internet. Nick Clegg, the former leader of the U.K. Liberal Democrat party who now heads global affairs for Facebook, says...

POPULAR NEWS
Hong Kong Stocks End Down After Four-Day Rally (Review)
Saturday, 22 June 2019 03:16 WIB

Hong Kong shares fell on Friday after a four-day rally, while traders turn their attention to next week's high-stakes meeting between Donald Trump...

Oil logs 9% weekly rise, biggest since late 2016; refinery fire jolts gasoline futures
Saturday, 22 June 2019 03:08 WIB

Oil futures gained on Friday, with U.S. prices tallying a rise of nearly 9% for the week and highest settlement this month, lifted by expectations...

Stocks end slightly lower a day after S&P notches record close
Saturday, 22 June 2019 03:15 WIB

U.S. stocks ended slightly lower Friday, but locked in strong weekly gains after the Federal Reserve indicated on Wednesday it could carry out rate...

You Can't Be Anything But Bullish On Gold After $1,400 Breaks – Analysts
Monday, 24 June 2019 15:44 WIB

Patience has finally paid off for the gold bull, as demand for the precious metal has pushed prices to levels not seen in nearly six...