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Goldman Sachs: Emas Ke Atas Level $ 1.300 Dalam 3 Bulan Ke Depan, Naik 10% Pada 2019
Monday, 14 January 2019 22:00 WIB | GOLD CORNER |

Emas akan terus bersinar sebagai aset safe-haven dengan harga terdorong ke atas $ 1.300 per ons dalam tiga bulan ke depan, menurut perusahaan investasi raksasa Goldman Sachs.

Dalam sebuah catatan kepada klien, Jeff Currie, kepala penelitian komoditas global di bank, mengatakan ia menaikkan perkiraan harga emasnya untuk 2019 seiring kekhawatiran resesi yang terus meningkat terus mengguncang pasar keuangan.

Dia menambahkan bahwa permintaan emas bank sentral, yang merasakan pertumbuhan kuat sepanjang 2018, akan terus menjadi tema yang mendominasi di pasar.

œEmas ke depan akan didukung terutama oleh meningkatnya permintaan untuk aset defensif. Hal yang sama juga berlaku untuk pembelian bank sentral, dengan meningkatnya ketegangan geopolitik sehigga mendorong lebih banyak bank sentral untuk memasuki kembali pasar emas, "katanya.

Dalam update perkiraannya, Goldman Sachs sekarang melihat harga emas terdorong ke level $ 1.325 per ounce dalam tiga bulan, naik ke level $ 1.375 dalam enam bulan dan bergerak ke level $ 1.425 per ounce pada akhir tahun. Prospek baru ini merupakan peningkatan dari perkiraan tiga bulan, enam bulan dan 12 bulan sebelumnya  yang masing-masing  berada di level $ 1.250, $ 1.300, dan $ 1.325.

Target akhir tahun 2019 Goldman mewakili kenaikan hampir 10,5% untuk tahun ini. Harga emas tetap bertahan di sekitar level tertinggi enam bulan terakhir

Komentar Currie datang di saat harga emas melihat permintaan investor yang signifikan pada kuartal keempat. Bulan lalu sangat kuat untuk emas karena bank mencatat bahwa pasar ekuitas melihat pelemahan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya, yang terburuk sejak Desember 1931.

Currie juga mencatat bahwa data AS mulai menandakan risiko pelambatan ekonomi AS, yang akan mendukung emas.

"Beberapa minggu terakhir telah terlihat penurunan tajam dalam sentimen risiko menyusul data ekonomi makro yang lemah pada bulan Desember dan kekhawatiran baru tentang arah pertumbuhan di masa depan" katanya.

Currie juga positif pada emas karena sepertinya Federal Reserve siap untuk menghentikan siklus pengetatannya. Kamis lalu, Ketua Federal Reserve Jerome Powell menegaskan kembali sikap sebelumnya bahwa karena tekanan inflasi yang lemah, bank sentral dapat bersabar untuk menunggu dan melihat bagaimana ekonomi AS akan berkinerja.

Currie mencatat bahwa pada tahap ini dalam siklus bisnis, emas tidak perlu terlalu takut dengan pengetatan kebijakan moneter lebih lanjut.

"Kami menemukan bahwa ketika siklus kenaikan suku bunga sudah di puncaknya, korelasi (negatif) biasa antara indikator-indikator ini dan emas mulai melemah, atau bahkan berubah negatif," katanya. "Ini karena harga emas mulai jauh lebih tinggi pada kekhawatiran akan resesi berikutnya daripada karena biaya kesempatan memegang emas." (Sdm)

Sumber: Kitco

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